Viewing archive of söndag, 16 december 2001

Solaktivitetsrapport

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2001 Dec 16 2200 UTC
Skapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com

USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet

SDF Nummer 350 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 16 Dec 2001

IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 15-2100Z till 16-2100Z

Solar activity increased to moderate levels. Region 9733 (N14W36) remained the most active sunspot group on the disk. It produced two M-class flares: an M1/2N at 16/0124 UTC and an M1/1f at 16/0328 UTC. Minor radio emission accompanied both flares. Region 9733 decreased slightly in area and magnetic complexity and appeared to lose the magnetic delta configuration within its northernmost spots. However, it retained a moderately complex beta-gamma magnetic classification. Region 9739 (S13W43) appeared to be in a gradual growth phase, but remained simply structured. Region 9742 (N08E64) produced isolated subflares during the period. Magnetogram images suggest this region may possess a moderate degree of magnetic complexity, though it is difficult to gauge given its limb proximity. New Region 9743 (S10E73) produced isolated subflares as it rotated into view. It may represent the return of old Region 9714 (S08, L = 195), which produced M-class flares during its last rotation. New Region 9744 (S06E24) was also numbered.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high. Isolated, low-level M-class flares are likely. Region 9733 may produce a major flare during the period.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 15-2100Z till 16-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to remain at quiet to unsettled levels. There will be a chance for a proton flare from Region 9733.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 17 Dec till 19 Dec
M-klass75%75%75%
X-klass10%10%10%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observerad       16 Dec 209
  Prognoserat   17 Dec-19 Dec  205/200/195
  90 Day Mean        16 Dec 219
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
  Observerad Afr/Ap 15 Dec  010/011
  Förväntat     Afr/Ap 16 Dec  010/012
  Prognoserat    Afr/Ap 17 Dec-19 Dec  010/010-008/008-008/008
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 17 Dec till 19 Dec
A. Medelhöga breddgrader
Aktivt20%20%20%
Små stormförhållanden05%05%05%
Svåra stormförhållanden01%01%01%
B. Höga breddgrader
Aktivt25%25%25%
Små stormförhållanden10%10%10%
Svåra stormförhållanden01%01%01%

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