Viewing archive of lördag, 10 november 2001
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2001 Nov 10 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 314 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 10 Nov 2001IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 09-2100Z till 10-2100Z Solar activity decreased to moderate levels. Region
9690 (S18E04) remained the most impressive and active sunspot group
on the disk. It produced occasional flares including two low-level
M-class associated with minor radio emission. This region remained
large and magnetically complex, but showed some signs of decay in
the leader portion of the group. However, a magnetic delta
configuration persisted within its trailer spots. Region 9692
(N06W51) showed an increase in area and magnetic complexity, but
produced no flares. New Regions 9695 (N11E68) and 9696 (S05E68) were
numbered.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate to high levels. Region 9690 is expected to produce M-class
flares. It is also capable of producing a major flare. Region 9692
may produce an M-class flare.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 09-2100Z till 10-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels. The greater than 10
MeV proton event that began at 04/1705 UTC ended at 10/0715 UTC. The
maximum for this event was 31,700 PFU at 06/0215 UTC, making it the
largest greater than 10 MeV proton event of the current sunspot
cycle.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. There will be a slight
chance for a proton flare during the period.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 11 Nov till 13 Nov
| M-klass | 90% | 90% | 90% |
| X-klass | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Proton | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 10 Nov 246 Prognoserat 11 Nov-13 Nov 245/250/255 90 Day Mean 10 Nov 212
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 09 Nov 002/004 Förväntat Afr/Ap 10 Nov 005/006 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 11 Nov-13 Nov 010/010-008/008-005/005
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 11 Nov till 13 Nov
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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