Viewing archive of fredag, 26 oktober 2001
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2001 Oct 26 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 299 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 26 Oct 2001IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 25-2100Z till 26-2100Z Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 9678
(N11E07) was quite active producing six C-class flares and one M2/Sn
flare at 26/1435 UTC. Radio sweeps at numerous discrete frequencies
were reported with the M2/Sn flare. This region continued rapid
growth in area coverage to 680 millionths, spot count to 48, and
remains a magnetically complex beta-gamma-delta configuration.
Region 9672 (S18W41) was also active producing four C-class and one
minor M-class flares. As Region 9682 (N11E59) rotates onto the disc
it has developed into a major region with good potential for
activity. New Region 9683 (N28E30) was numbered today.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar Activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. There is also a chance of an isolated major
flare from Regions 9672, 9678, and 9682. Region 9672 still
maintains a complex magnetic configuration and it has not diminished
in size or complexity. Continued rapid growth and complexity of
Region 9678 makes this region a potential source for a major flare.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 25-2100Z till 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. A coronal hole / high
speed stream has begun to rotate into a geoeffective position.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to major storm levels. The shock arrival
from the X1/2b CME on 25/1502 UTC is expected to arrive late on day
one or early on day two of the period. Shock arrival is expected to
produce unsettled to minor storm level activity for day one and two
of the period. Major storm levels are possible particularly at the
higher latitudes. Coronal hole / high speed stream may keep
activity at unsettled levels on day three.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 27 Oct till 29 Oct
| M-klass | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| X-klass | 35% | 35% | 30% |
| Proton | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 26 Oct 237 Prognoserat 27 Oct-29 Oct 230/225/220 90 Day Mean 26 Oct 197
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 25 Oct 005/007 Förväntat Afr/Ap 26 Oct 006/005 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 27 Oct-29 Oct 020/020-030/030-015/015
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 27 Oct till 29 Oct
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 25% | 30% | 20% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 45% | 45% | 30% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 35% | 35% | 20% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 20% | 20% | 10% |
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