Viewing archive of onsdag, 24 oktober 2001
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2001 Oct 24 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 297 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 24 Oct 2001IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 23-2100Z till 24-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. The largest flare
was a C6/Sf from Region 9678 (N07E34) at 24/1841 UTC. This region
has increased in area (140 millionths), spot count (22) and magnetic
complexity (beta-gamma). Region 9672 (S19W13) has increased in
arial coverage to 490 millionth, increased spot count to 26 and
maintains a beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration. This region
has produced minor C-class flares and has the potential for a major
flare. Region 9669 (N14W51) also produced minor C-class flares.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels with a chance of an isolated high level
condition. Region 9672 continues to have a good chance of producing
a major flare. Region 9678 also has the potential for a major
flare.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 23-2100Z till 24-2100Z
Geomagnetic activity was at quiet levels. The shock arrival from the
two CMEs (M6/2N on 22/1502 UTC and X1/2B on 22/1759 UTC)) appears to
have lower shock velocity than expected. No shock signature was
observed from the NASA ACE/EPAM, MAG, SWEPAM instruments as of the
time of this forecast issue. Greater than 10 MeV protons were
elevated but continued slow decay.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels. Further analysis of
the expected CME shock combined with the lack of shock signature by
ground and space based instruments indicates that the shock arrival
is expected on day one or even early on day two of the period.
Shock arrival is expected to result in active to minor storm levels.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to return to quiet to unsettled
conditions by day three. Greater than 10 MeV protons are expected
to remain elevated but continue to decay throughout the period
barring a major flare event.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 25 Oct till 27 Oct
| M-klass | 80% | 75% | 75% |
| X-klass | 35% | 25% | 25% |
| Proton | 25% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 24 Oct 239 Prognoserat 25 Oct-27 Oct 225/220/215 90 Day Mean 24 Oct 194
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 23 Oct 010/015 Förväntat Afr/Ap 24 Oct 008/010 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 25 Oct-27 Oct 030/040-015/020-010/015
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 25 Oct till 27 Oct
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 50% | 30% | 20% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 30% | 10% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 15% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 50% | 30% | 25% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 35% | 20% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 15% | 05% | 05% |
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