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Solaktivitetsrapport

Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2001 Oct 24 2200 UTC
Skapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com

USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet

SDF Nummer 297 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 24 Oct 2001

IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 23-2100Z till 24-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. The largest flare was a C6/Sf from Region 9678 (N07E34) at 24/1841 UTC. This region has increased in area (140 millionths), spot count (22) and magnetic complexity (beta-gamma). Region 9672 (S19W13) has increased in arial coverage to 490 millionth, increased spot count to 26 and maintains a beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration. This region has produced minor C-class flares and has the potential for a major flare. Region 9669 (N14W51) also produced minor C-class flares.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels with a chance of an isolated high level condition. Region 9672 continues to have a good chance of producing a major flare. Region 9678 also has the potential for a major flare.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 23-2100Z till 24-2100Z
Geomagnetic activity was at quiet levels. The shock arrival from the two CMEs (M6/2N on 22/1502 UTC and X1/2B on 22/1759 UTC)) appears to have lower shock velocity than expected. No shock signature was observed from the NASA ACE/EPAM, MAG, SWEPAM instruments as of the time of this forecast issue. Greater than 10 MeV protons were elevated but continued slow decay.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels. Further analysis of the expected CME shock combined with the lack of shock signature by ground and space based instruments indicates that the shock arrival is expected on day one or even early on day two of the period. Shock arrival is expected to result in active to minor storm levels. Geomagnetic activity is expected to return to quiet to unsettled conditions by day three. Greater than 10 MeV protons are expected to remain elevated but continue to decay throughout the period barring a major flare event.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 25 Oct till 27 Oct
M-klass80%75%75%
X-klass35%25%25%
Proton25%15%15%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observerad       24 Oct 239
  Prognoserat   25 Oct-27 Oct  225/220/215
  90 Day Mean        24 Oct 194
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
  Observerad Afr/Ap 23 Oct  010/015
  Förväntat     Afr/Ap 24 Oct  008/010
  Prognoserat    Afr/Ap 25 Oct-27 Oct  030/040-015/020-010/015
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 25 Oct till 27 Oct
A. Medelhöga breddgrader
Aktivt50%30%20%
Små stormförhållanden30%10%05%
Svåra stormförhållanden15%05%01%
B. Höga breddgrader
Aktivt50%30%25%
Små stormförhållanden35%20%15%
Svåra stormförhållanden15%05%05%

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