Viewing archive of torsdag, 18 oktober 2001

Solaktivitetsrapport

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2001 Oct 18 2200 UTC
Skapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com

USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet

SDF Nummer 291 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 18 Oct 2001

IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 17-2100Z till 18-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. The first half of the day produced multiple low level C-class flares that were not optically correlated. At 18/1350 UTC, Region 9658 (S14W48) produced a C6/1n flare and associated radio enhancements. White light analysis of this region shows a slight decay in areal coverage of spots, though it remains a beta-gamma magnetic class group. Region 9661 (N16W23) followed with a C4/Sf flare at 18/1609 UTC and continues to show the potential to produce much more significant activity. This region has shown a small decay in areal coverage of spot group from yesterday, although it still continues to be a large, magnetically complex region. New Region 9672 (S21E69) produced the largest flare of the day, a C8/Sf flare that occurred at 18/1905 UTC. This region may very well be old Region 9632 which currently appears to have not fully rotated onto disk. Two new Regions were numbered today, 9672 and 9673 (N03E73).
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. There are several regions on the disk that are capable of producing M-class or isolated major flares, the most noteworthy being Region 9661.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 17-2100Z till 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is expected to remain at quiet to unsettled levels through forecast period, barring the occurrence of an earth-directed CME. High latitudes may experience isolated periods of active conditions during days one and two.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 19 Oct till 21 Oct
M-klass60%60%60%
X-klass10%10%10%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observerad       18 Oct 229
  Prognoserat   19 Oct-21 Oct  235/240/245
  90 Day Mean        18 Oct 188
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
  Observerad Afr/Ap 17 Oct  002/004
  Förväntat     Afr/Ap 18 Oct  005/006
  Prognoserat    Afr/Ap 19 Oct-21 Oct  005/010-005/010-008/008
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 19 Oct till 21 Oct
A. Medelhöga breddgrader
Aktivt15%15%20%
Små stormförhållanden05%05%05%
Svåra stormförhållanden01%01%01%
B. Höga breddgrader
Aktivt20%20%20%
Små stormförhållanden05%05%05%
Svåra stormförhållanden01%01%01%

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