Viewing archive of onsdag, 12 september 2001
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2001 Sep 12 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 255 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 12 Sep 2001IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 11-2100Z till 12-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. A M1 class flare occurred
at 12/0444 UT. SOHO/EIT imagery suggests this flare originated from
Region 9608 (S26W18). Regions 9608 (S26W18) and 9610 (S13W05) have
become more compact and increased in sunspot number. Numerous
C-class flares also occurred. New data from SOHO/LASCO, together
with H-alpha imagery, revealed a disappearing filament and
associated halo CME which occurred on September 11 near spotless
Region 9615 (N11E23). This event was also accompanied with a modest
long duration optical and x-ray enhancements during 11/1416-1530 UT.
New Region 9617 (N10E71) was numbered today.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high. Regions 9608 (S26W18), 9610 (S13E05), and 9616
(S11E69) are all potential sources of significant flares. Region
9608 is the most complex and capable of a major flare.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 11-2100Z till 12-2100Z
Geomagnetic activity was at quiet to active levels. High speed
stream effects appear to be diminishing.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to active with isolated minor storm
conditions possible through days one and two, in response to the
disappearing filament activity noted in section 1A above, along with
the remaining possibility of some effect from the CME activity of
September 9. By day three, predominantly quiet to unsettled
conditions are expected.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 13 Sep till 15 Sep
| M-klass | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| X-klass | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 12 Sep 235 Prognoserat 13 Sep-15 Sep 235/235/225 90 Day Mean 12 Sep 164
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 11 Sep 012/009 Förväntat Afr/Ap 12 Sep 014/015 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 13 Sep-15 Sep 015/015-018/020-012/012
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 13 Sep till 15 Sep
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 20% | 25% | 20% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 25% | 30% | 20% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 15% | 20% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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