Viewing archive of onsdag, 20 juni 2001
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2001 Jun 20 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 171 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 20 Jun 2001IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 19-2100Z till 20-2100Z Solar activity remained at low levels. Region 9503
(N16W20) produced a C4/1f flare at 20/2044 UTC. It was the largest
active region on the disk and maintained a minor degree of magnetic
complexity. Region 9506 (N19E08) was stable and showed signs of
gradual decay. Region 9501 (S13W50) produced a C4/Sf flare at
19/2326 UTC associated with a CME that was not Earth-directed. This
region showed no significant changes during the period and remained
a moderate-sized, simply-structured sunspot group. New Regions 9510
(S06W35) and 9511 (N11E53) were numbered.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. An isolated M-class flare will be possible
during the period.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 19-2100Z till 20-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at unsettled to active levels due to
coronal hole effects.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during most of the
period with brief active periods possible during the first day as
coronal hole effects subside. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit may reach high levels during the first half
of the forecast period.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 21 Jun till 23 Jun
| M-klass | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| X-klass | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 20 Jun 199 Prognoserat 21 Jun-23 Jun 195/190/190 90 Day Mean 20 Jun 174
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 19 Jun 012/014 Förväntat Afr/Ap 20 Jun 015/015 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 21 Jun-23 Jun 012/013-010/011-008/010
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 21 Jun till 23 Jun
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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