Viewing archive of onsdag 16 maj 2001

Solaktivitetsrapport

Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2001 May 16 2200 UTC
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USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet

SDF Nummer 136 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 16 May 2001

IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 15-2100Z till 16-2100Z

Solar activity remained at moderate levels. Region 9455 (S17W52) produced an M1/Sf flare at 16/1042 UTC as well as isolated C-class subflares. Minor development was reported in the interior portion of this region, where a mild mix of polarities has persisted. Region 9454 (N13W08) also displayed a small degree of magnetic complexity, but was stable through the period. Region 9458 (S12W72) produced a C2/Sf flare at 16/1550 UTC as it approached the west limb. This flare was associated with a Type II radio sweep and a CME, which did not appear to be Earth-directed. Region 9461 (N16E63), which was the return of old Region 9433 (responsible for major flares during it previous two rotations), was relatively stable during the period. At present it is classed as a simple D-type group, but it is still too close to the east limb for a detailed analysis. No new regions were assigned.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels with a fair chance for an isolated M-class flare from Region 9455. There is also a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare from Region 9454. At present, it is difficult to gauge the flare potential of Region 9461, given its proximity to the east limb. However, given its rich history of flare production, it cannot be counted out as a source for energetic flare activity.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 15-2100Z till 16-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet to unsettled levels with a chance for active periods at high latitudes. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux may reach high levels during the first half of the forecast period.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 17 May till 19 May
M-klass40%40%40%
X-klass05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observerad       16 May 138
  Prognoserat   17 May-19 May  145/150/155
  90 Day Mean        16 May 167
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
  Observerad Afr/Ap 15 May  010/016
  Förväntat     Afr/Ap 16 May  012/015
  Prognoserat    Afr/Ap 17 May-19 May  012/020-012/020-010/015
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 17 May till 19 May
A. Medelhöga breddgrader
Aktivt30%30%20%
Små stormförhållanden10%10%05%
Svåra stormförhållanden01%01%01%
B. Höga breddgrader
Aktivt35%35%25%
Små stormförhållanden15%15%10%
Svåra stormförhållanden01%01%01%

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