Viewing archive of torsdag 19 april 2001

Solaktivitetsrapport

Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2001 Apr 19 2200 UTC
Skapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com

USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet

SDF Nummer 109 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 19 Apr 2001

IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 18-2100Z till 19-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate due to an M2 x-ray flare at 19/1135 UTC. An optical flare report was not received but SOHO/EIT difference images suggest the source was Region 9433 (N17E64), the return of old 9393. All of this region appears to have rotated onto the disk and is presently seen as a moderately-sized (700 millionths) F-type sunspot group with some mixed polarities. This area also produced a few small C-class subflares during the day. Interestingly, a CME was visible entering the SOHO/LASCO/C2 field of view over the northwest limb shortly after the M2 at about 19/1200 UTC. The location suggests that departed Region 9415 was involved with this activity but any connection to the M2 discussed above may only be coincidental. Regions 9434 (N19W23) and 9435 (S21E28) were numbered.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 9433 is expected to continue to produce C-class flares and appears capable of additional M-class activity.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 18-2100Z till 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled. The greater than 100 MeV proton event ended at 19/0325 UTC (start 18/0315 UTC, 12 pfu peak at 18/0600 UTC). The polar cap absorption (PCA) event has also ended (19/1400 UTC). The greater than 10 MeV proton event continues in progress (start 18/0315 UTC, 321 pfu peak at 18/1045 UTC, and current flux about 15 pfu at 19/2100 UTC) and is slowly decaying.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to drop below event threshold sometime tomorrow (April 20 UTC).
III. Chans för solutbrott från 20 Apr till 22 Apr
M-klass50%50%50%
X-klass05%05%05%
Proton95%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observerad       19 Apr 145
  Prognoserat   20 Apr-22 Apr  155/165/175
  90 Day Mean        19 Apr 165
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
  Observerad Afr/Ap 18 Apr  022/050
  Förväntat     Afr/Ap 19 Apr  010/008
  Prognoserat    Afr/Ap 20 Apr-22 Apr  010/010-010/010-010/010
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 20 Apr till 22 Apr
A. Medelhöga breddgrader
Aktivt10%10%10%
Små stormförhållanden05%05%05%
Svåra stormförhållanden01%01%01%
B. Höga breddgrader
Aktivt15%15%15%
Små stormförhållanden10%10%10%
Svåra stormförhållanden01%01%01%

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