Viewing archive of söndag, 1 april 2001
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2001 Apr 01 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 091 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 01 Apr 2001IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 31-2100Z till 01-2100Z Solar activity has been moderate. A Class M5 event
began at 01/1055 UT. It has been associated with energetic
post-flare type loops at the east limb near SE20. Coronal mass
ejections have been numerous over the southeast limb, with the most
dynamic occurring in temporal association with the Class M5 flare.
The CME appeared to clear the LASCO field of view in half the time
typical CME's require and appeared to extend from far south of the
equator to very far north. Active Region 9393 (N15 W57) has
changed little. It produced an impulsive Class M4 X-ray event
beginning at 01/1943 UT.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to remain
moderate to high. Region 9393 (N15 W57) remains a probable source
of Class M and Class X Flares. Other regions with high flare
potential among the dozen or so spotted active regions now visible
include Region 9408 (S10 W18), 9397 (S10 W35), and 9401 (N20 W40).
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 31-2100Z till 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field declined to quiet levels by 01/0900 UT.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active with a small chance of a minor
storm. An energetic event in Region 9393 is likely to produce a
prompt solar proton event.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 02 Apr till 04 Apr
| M-klass | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| X-klass | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Proton | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 01 Apr 258 Prognoserat 02 Apr-04 Apr 235/225/205 90 Day Mean 01 Apr 164
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 31 Mar 115/155 Förväntat Afr/Ap 01 Apr 027/040 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 02 Apr-04 Apr 020/035-012/020-008/015
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 02 Apr till 04 Apr
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 28% | 28% | 28% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 18% | 18% | 18% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 17% | 12% | 08% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 28% | 28% | 28% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 18% | 18% | 18% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 12% | 10% | 08% |
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