Viewing archive of fredag, 30 mars 2001

Solaktivitetsrapport

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2001 Mar 30 2200 UTC
Skapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com

USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet

SDF Nummer 089 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 30 Mar 2001

IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 29-2100Z till 30-2100Z

Solar activity has been moderate to high. Region 9393 (N17 W30) has produced three M-class flares since 30/0000 UTC. The region remains large, complex, and threatening to produce more Class X events.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to remain high. Region 9393 remains the center of a complex likely to produce M-Class events with a very good chance of one or more Class X events over the next three days as the region moves away from central meridian but remains in a prime location to produce strong to severe effects at Earth. Over a dozen sunspot groups are visible and may produce Class M events.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 29-2100Z till 30-2100Z
Activity in the geomagnetic field has been unsettled the past 24 hours. Some discontinuity was observed at the ACE spacecraft and at Earth between 30/1800 UTC and 30/1900 UTC. The event appeared to be small and is likely the result of solar activity prior to 29 March. The small proton event that began at 29/1000 UTC reached a maximum flux of 35 pfu in the >30 MeV GOES detector and remains above 10 pfu today.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
Effects from CME's from the events on 29 March are expected to begin early on 31 March. Model runs predict an earlier arrival at Earth late on 30 March. ACE energetic protons are rising slowly indicating the disturbance is still some distance away at 30/2100 UT. Any geomagnetic storm that results is expected to range from minor to major. The small >30 MeV proton event in progress is expected to continue its slow decline with a chance of an enhancement with the passage of the interplanetary shock. Major activity from Region 9393 may well produce additional proton events and geomagnetic activity at Earth.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 31 Mar till 02 Apr
M-klass80%80%80%
X-klass35%35%35%
Proton99%30%30%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observerad       30 Mar 257
  Prognoserat   31 Mar-02 Apr  255/250/245
  90 Day Mean        30 Mar 163
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
  Observerad Afr/Ap 29 Mar  017/022
  Förväntat     Afr/Ap 30 Mar  014/015
  Prognoserat    Afr/Ap 31 Mar-02 Apr  045/050-045/050-025/030
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 31 Mar till 02 Apr
A. Medelhöga breddgrader
Aktivt05%05%30%
Små stormförhållanden40%40%17%
Svåra stormförhållanden52%50%50%
B. Höga breddgrader
Aktivt10%10%30%
Små stormförhållanden40%40%30%
Svåra stormförhållanden50%50%35%

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