Viewing archive of onsdag, 28 mars 2001

Solaktivitetsrapport

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2001 Mar 28 2200 UTC
Skapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com

USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet

SDF Nummer 087 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 28 Mar 2001

IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 27-2100Z till 28-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. Region 9393 (N13E00) once again produced the most activity with four M-class events during the period. The first was an M1/Sf at 28/0158Z, the second was an M1/Sn at 28/0947Z, the third was an M4/Sf at 28/1240Z and the fourth was an M1/1f at 28/1909Z. Regions 9403 (S13E36) and 9397 (S09E19) produced upper C-class level events. Region 9393 continued growing and currently covers an area of over 2200 millionths in white light. The region is also maintaining a very complex beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration. Four new regions were numbered today, Region 9405 (S13W20), Region 9406 (N25E67), 9407 (N11E64), and 9408 (S08E38).
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high. Region 9393 has the best potential to produce a major flare.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 27-2100Z till 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to major storm. Minor to major storm conditions were observed from 28/0900Z to 28/1500Z. An earth-directed full halo CME was seen in LASCO/SOHO imagery. The halo occurred at approximately 28/1300Z and was associated with the M4/Sf event in Region 9393.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominately quiet to unsettled with possible isolated active conditions on the first day. Conditions are expected to increase during the middle of the period reaching minor to major storm levels due to a CME passage. Conditions are expected to decrease towards the end of the period to unsettled to active levels. There is the possiblilty for a proton event if Region 9393 produces a major flare event.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 29 Mar till 31 Mar
M-klass75%75%75%
X-klass20%20%20%
Proton15%15%15%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observerad       28 Mar 274
  Prognoserat   29 Mar-31 Mar  270/265/255
  90 Day Mean        28 Mar 162
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
  Observerad Afr/Ap 27 Mar  016/018
  Förväntat     Afr/Ap 28 Mar  024/030
  Prognoserat    Afr/Ap 29 Mar-31 Mar  014/015-030/030-020/020
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 29 Mar till 31 Mar
A. Medelhöga breddgrader
Aktivt25%30%40%
Små stormförhållanden10%40%30%
Svåra stormförhållanden01%15%10%
B. Höga breddgrader
Aktivt30%20%30%
Små stormförhållanden15%45%40%
Svåra stormförhållanden05%25%20%

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