Viewing archive of onsdag, 31 januari 2001
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2001 Jan 31 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 031 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 31 Jan 2001IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 30-2100Z till 31-2100Z Solar activity has been low. The greatest activity of
note was an optically uncorrelated C2 flare at 30/2237 UTC. A
bright surge on the disk near spotless region 9216 (S15W84) was also
observed at 31/1536 UTC, but with only minor accompanying x-ray
enhancement. Region 9330 (N26E57) has rotated into full view as the
largest region on the disk (230 millionths coverage in white light,
in an Eao-Beta configuration), but produced no activity of note
during the period.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be
predominantly low, with only isolated chances for moderate activity
during the next three days.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 30-2100Z till 31-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to minor storm levels.
Shock passage associated with the CME of January 28 was observed at
the ACE satellite at 31/0742 UTC, with a subsequent sudden impulse
(17 nT) observed at Boulder at 31/0803 UTC. Unsettled to active
conditions have predominated since, with an isolated period of
minor storming recorded for higher latitudes during 31/0900-1200
UTC.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels through February 1,
reducing to quiet to unsettled levels for February 2-3.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 01 Feb till 03 Feb
| M-klass | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| X-klass | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 31 Jan 153 Prognoserat 01 Feb-03 Feb 155/160/165 90 Day Mean 31 Jan 172
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
Observerad Afr/Ap 30 Jan 003/004 Förväntat Afr/Ap 31 Jan 013/018 Prognoserat Afr/Ap 01 Feb-03 Feb 008/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 01 Feb till 03 Feb
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 01% |
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