Viewing archive of onsdag, 24 januari 2001

Solaktivitetsrapport

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2001 Jan 24 2200 UTC
Skapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com

USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet

SDF Nummer 024 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 24 Jan 2001

IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 23-2100Z till 24-2100Z

Solar activity has been moderate during the past 24 hours. An increase in flare production and x-ray background began yesterday around 1800Z, leading to frequent C-class flares and one M-class flare during the past 24 hours. Today's largest event was an M1/2f at 1447Z from Region 9311 (N06W76). Most of the new activity was from Region 9311 although Region 9313 (S07W12) and Region 9321 (S06E31) also contributed to some of the activity. Regions 9313 and 9321 appear to be growing slowly.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be moderate tomorrow, with a fair-to-good chance for another M-class event from Region 9311. A decrease in activity and background levels is anticipated on the second and third days, however, with the departure of Region 9311 from the solar disk.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 23-2100Z till 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly unsettled to active during the past 24 hours. There was a minor storm period at high latitudes from 1200-1500Z. Solar wind signatures showed characteristics of swept up flow, and perhaps a portion of transient flow, but there was no indication of passing through the main part of the driver. Greater than 10 MeV protons remained enhanced but were beginning to decline near day's end.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to slightly active during the next 12-24 hours. A decrease to mostly unsettled is expected for the second and third days.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 25 Jan till 27 Jan
M-klass60%40%20%
X-klass10%05%05%
Proton15%10%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observerad       24 Jan
  Prognoserat   25 Jan-27 Jan  175/170/165
  90 Day Mean        24 Jan 174
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
  Observerad Afr/Ap 23 Jan  007/011
  Förväntat     Afr/Ap 24 Jan  018/020
  Prognoserat    Afr/Ap 25 Jan-27 Jan  015/015-012/012-010/012
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 25 Jan till 27 Jan
A. Medelhöga breddgrader
Aktivt30%25%20%
Små stormförhållanden20%15%10%
Svåra stormförhållanden05%05%05%
B. Höga breddgrader
Aktivt30%25%20%
Små stormförhållanden20%15%10%
Svåra stormförhållanden10%05%05%

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