Viewing archive of torsdag, 16 november 2000

Solaktivitetsrapport

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2000 Nov 16 2200 UTC
Skapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com

USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet

SDF Nummer 321 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 16 Nov 2000

IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 15-2100Z till 16-2100Z

Solar activity remained at low levels. An impressive, full-halo CME occurred early in the period, but was judged to be from a source on the far side of the Sun. A C8 X-ray flare occurred at 16/0040 UTC associated with a weak Type II radio sweep and a CME that did not appear to be Earth-directed. The source for this flare was determined to be Region 9231 (S23E30), based on SOHO/EIT images. Region 9231 showed a gradual increase in spot count and penumbral coverage, as well as a minor increase in magnetic complexity. New Region 9235 (N14E63) was numbered.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. Region 9231 may produce an isolated M-class flare during the period.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 15-2100Z till 16-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels through the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was high.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during the first two days of the forecast period. Field activity is expected to increase to unsettled to active levels on the third day due to recurrent coronal hole effects. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to decline to normal to moderate levels during the latter half of the forecast period.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 17 Nov till 19 Nov
M-klass40%40%40%
X-klass10%10%10%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observerad       16 Nov 154
  Prognoserat   17 Nov-19 Nov  155/160/160
  90 Day Mean        16 Nov 170
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
  Observerad Afr/Ap 15 Nov  003/005
  Förväntat     Afr/Ap 16 Nov  002/005
  Prognoserat    Afr/Ap 17 Nov-19 Nov  007/012-010/010-015/020
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 17 Nov till 19 Nov
A. Medelhöga breddgrader
Aktivt15%30%35%
Små stormförhållanden05%10%15%
Svåra stormförhållanden01%01%05%
B. Höga breddgrader
Aktivt20%30%35%
Små stormförhållanden05%15%20%
Svåra stormförhållanden01%01%10%

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