Viewing archive of tisdag, 18 juli 2000

Solaktivitetsrapport

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2000 Jul 18 2200 UTC
Skapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com

USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet

SDF Nummer 200 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 18 JUL 2000

IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 17-2100Z till 18-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED AT A MODERATE LEVEL. DECAYING REGION 9077 (N18W57) PRODUCED AN M1/2B FLARE AT 18/0515Z WITH WEAK TYPE II AND IV BURSTS. REGION 9087 (S12E12) GENERATED AN M3/2N FLARE AT 18/1419Z. THIS REGION ALSO GENERATED A LONG DURATION M3/2N AT 18/1945Z. IN THE LAST 24 HOURS, THIS REGION EXHIBITED SIGNIFICANT GROWTH JUST AHEAD OF THE PREEXISTING LEADER SPOTS. IT IS LIKELY THAT A DELTA CONFIGURATION FORMED ALSO INDICATING THE PRESENCE OF STRONG MAGNETIC GRADIENTS. SEVERAL NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT WAS REGION 9097 (N06E76) THAT ROTATED ONTO THE DISK WITH BRIGHT COMPACT PLAGE, A MODERATE SIZE D CLASS SUNSPOT GROUP, AND FREQUENT SUBFLARES.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MODERATE TO HIGH. A POSSIBILITY REMAINS OF A DECAY PHASE MAJOR FLARE FROM REGION 9077. HOWEVER, REGION 9087 SHOULD BEGIN TO PRODUCE MORE FREQUENT M-CLASS EVENTS DUE TO NEARBY FLUX EMERGENCE. IF THE AREA OF NEW FLUX BEGINS TO MERGE WITH THE PREEXISTING FIELDS, MAJOR FLARES WILL BECOME LIKELY.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 17-2100Z till 18-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED. SOLAR WIND VELOCITY REMAINED ELEVATED, AT TIMES EXCEEDING 600 KM/S. THE GREATER THAN 10 MEV FLUX BEGAN THE PERIOD AT APPROXIMATELY 50 PFU AND DECLINED SLOWLY TO NEAR 20 PFU AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. AN INTERMITTENT FORBUSH DECREASE WAS IN PROGRESS DURING THE DAY.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD BE PREDOMINANTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. OCCASIONAL ACTIVE PERIODS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THAT TIME. BASED UPON THE CURRENT DECAY RATE OF THE GREATER THAN 10 MEV PROTON FLUX, THIS EVENT SHOULD DECREASE BELOW THRESHOLD LATE ON 19 JUL.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 19 JUL till 21 JUL
M-klass90%90%90%
X-klass40%40%40%
Proton99%50%40%
PCAFYELLOW
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observerad       18 JUL 249 (ESTIMATED)
  Prognoserat   19 JUL-21 JUL  255/260/255
  90 Day Mean        18 JUL 187
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
OBSERVED AFR/AP 17 JUL  008/009
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 18 JUL  008/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 19 JUL-21 JUL  010/010-012/012-012/012
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 19 JUL till 21 JUL
A. Medelhöga breddgrader
Aktivt20%25%25%
Små stormförhållanden10%10%10%
Svåra stormförhållanden05%05%05%
B. Höga breddgrader
Aktivt20%30%30%
Små stormförhållanden10%15%15%
Svåra stormförhållanden05%05%05%

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