Viewing archive of torsdag, 13 juli 2000
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2000 Jul 13 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 195 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 13 JUL 2000IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 12-2100Z till 13-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS HIGH. A TOTAL OF FIVE M1 X-RAY
EVENTS OCCURRED DURING THE PERIOD. THREE OF THE EVENTS WERE
PRODUCED BY REGION 9070 (N22W77), ONE CAME FROM REGION 9085
(N12E59), AND ONE WAS OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED. REGIONS 9070 AND 9077
(N17E03) HAVE MAINTAINED COMPLEX MAGNETIC DELTA CONFIGURATIONS.
SIGNIFICANT GROWTH OCCURRED IN REGION 9085 AND THE REGION NOW HAS A
BETA GAMMA MAGNETIC CONFIGURATION. NEW REGION 9086 (S10W40) WAS
NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AT MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS. NUMEROUS MINOR M-CLASS EVENTS ARE
EXPECTED FROM REGIONS 9070, 9077, OR 9085. ALSO, THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY OF A MAJOR FLARE EVENT FROM ANY OF THE THREE REGIONS
MENTIONED ABOVE.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 12-2100Z till 13-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT QUIET TO MAJOR STORM LEVELS. A SUDDEN
IMPULSE OCCURRED AT 13/0954Z (30 NT, AS MEASURED BY THE BOULDER USGS
MAGNETOMETER). THE SOLAR WIND VELOCITY JUMPED FROM 500 TO OVER 700
KM/S AROUND 13/0900Z MAJOR STORM LEVELS WERE OBSERVED FOLLOWING THE
SHOCK ARRIVAL. ONE PERIOD OF SEVERE STORM CONDITIONS WAS OBSERVED
IN THE HIGH LATITUDES FROM 13/1200-1500Z. THIS SHOCK IS PRESUMED TO
BE RELATED TO CME'S OBSERVED ON 10-11 JULY. THE GREATER THAN 10 MEV
PROTON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS ENHANCED DURING PERIOD. A
MODERATE (8.0 PERCENT) FORBUSH DECREASE STARTED AT APPROXIMATELY
13/1130Z AND IS STILL IN PROGRESS.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM QUIET TO ACTIVE WITH ISOLATED PERIODS OF
MINOR STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THE FIRST DAY. THE GEOMAGNETIC
FIELD IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH ON THE SECOND DAY AND BECOME QUIET TO
UNSETTLED WITH ISOLATED PERIODS OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 14 JUL till 16 JUL
| M-klass | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| X-klass | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Proton | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| PCAF | YELLOW | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 13 JUL 232 Prognoserat 14 JUL-16 JUL 230/225/210 90 Day Mean 13 JUL 183
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
OBSERVED AFR/AP 12 JUL 012/012 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 13 JUL 030/030 PREDICTED AFR/AP 14 JUL-16 JUL 020/020-012/015-010/015
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 14 JUL till 16 JUL
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 60% | 30% | 25% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 25% | 15% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 50% | 35% | 30% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 35% | 25% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 10% | 10% | 05% |
Senaste nytt
måndag, 22 april 2024
Lot's of sunspots! Big chance for major flare activity?
lördag, 23 mars 2024
X1.1 solar flare with earth-directed CME
onsdag, 20 mars 2024
Sunspot region 3615, G1 watch
Senaste inläggen
AR 3637, 3638, 3643 85Unproven theories 341Space Weather Memes 338Filaments and prominences 55Growth of Cycle 25 433
Fler foruminläggStöd SpaceWeatherLive.com!
För att vara tillgängliga vid stora norrskensutbrott måsta vi ha kraftiga servrar som kan hantera alla besökare. Donera och stöd vårt projekt, så att vi kan finnas online även under stora stormar!
Rymdvädersfakta
| Senaste X-utbrottet | 2024/03/28 | X1.1 |
| Senaste M-utbrottet | 2024/04/24 | M1.4 |
| Senaste geomagnetiska stormen | 2024/04/19 | Kp7 (G3) |
| Fläckfria dagar | |
|---|---|
| Senaste dag utan solfläckar | 2022/06/08 |
| Månadsvis faktiskt antal solfläckar | |
|---|---|
| mars 2024 | 104.9 -19.8 |
| Last 30 days | 128.8 +21.5 |