Viewing archive of tisdag, 11 juli 2000

Solaktivitetsrapport

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2000 Jul 11 2200 UTC
Skapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com

USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet

SDF Nummer 193 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 11 JUL 2000

IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 10-2100Z till 11-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS HIGH. REGION 9077 (N19E31) PRODUCED AN M5/2B EARLY IN THE PERIOD AT 10/2142Z. AN ASSOCIATED TYPE II AND TYPE IV RADIO SWEEP WAS ALSO OBSERVED. AN IMPRESSIVE LARGE FILAMENT ERUPTION/CME WAS ALSO OBSERVED AT THIS TIME FROM NEAR N45E73. THIS REGION CONTINUES TO BE THE LARGEST REGION ON THE DISK AND MAINTAINS A COMPLEX DELTA MAGNETIC CONFIGURATION IN OVER 1000 MILLIONTHS OF WHITE LIGHT AREA. REGION 9077 ALSO PRODUCED AN M4 AT 11/1141Z FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY AN X1 AT 11/1310Z, BOTH ASSOCIATED WITH A LONG DURATION 1B FLARE. A LARGE CENTIMETRIC BURST ALSO OCCURRED WITH THIS FLARE INCLUDING A 1600 SFU TENFLARE. REGION 9070 (N18W31) PRODUCED AN M1/1N AT 11/1958Z. THIS REGION HAS DEVELOPED INTO A MODERATELY SIZED AND MAGNETICALLY COMPLEX REGION AND IS CURRENTLY 420 MILLIONTHS IN WHITE LIGHT IN A BETA-GAMMA CONFIGURATION. THREE NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED TODAY AS REGIONS 9081 (N03E69), 9082 (S12E39), AND 9083 (S18W21).
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE TO HIGH. REGIONS 9070 AND 9077 WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE M-CLASS WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR X-CLASS EVENTS.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 10-2100Z till 11-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS UNSETTLED TO MINOR STORM. DISTURBED CONDITIONS CONTINUED THIS PERIOD FOLLOWING YESTERDAY'S SHOCK AT 10/0558Z. A SECOND SHOCK WAS OBSERVED ON THE ACE SPACECRAFT AT 11/1125Z, ENHANCING THE EXISTING STORM. A GREATER THAN 10 MEV PROTON ENHANCEMENT FOLLOWED THIS MORNING'S X1 FLARE.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE WITH ISOLATED MINOR STORMING PERIODS AT HIGH LATITUDES FOR THE FIRST TWO DAYS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. GEOMAGNETIC STORMING AT MINOR TO MAJOR STORM LEVELS IS EXPECTED LATE ON DAY TWO THROUGH DAY THREE IN RESPONSE TO THE RECENT CME'S. THE GREATER THAN 10 MEV PROTONS ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED THE 10 PFU THRESHOLD ON DAY ONE OF THE FORECAST.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 12 JUL till 14 JUL
M-klass80%80%80%
X-klass30%30%30%
Proton20%20%20%
PCAFYELLOW
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observerad       11 JUL 225
  Prognoserat   12 JUL-14 JUL  220/210/205
  90 Day Mean        11 JUL 182
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
OBSERVED AFR/AP 10 JUL  018/019
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 11 JUL  028/030
PREDICTED AFR/AP 12 JUL-14 JUL  020/025-025/025-050/050
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 12 JUL till 14 JUL
A. Medelhöga breddgrader
Aktivt60%60%20%
Små stormförhållanden20%20%40%
Svåra stormförhållanden10%10%40%
B. Höga breddgrader
Aktivt50%50%20%
Små stormförhållanden30%30%40%
Svåra stormförhållanden20%20%40%

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