Viewing archive of måndag, 12 juni 2000

Solaktivitetsrapport

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2000 Jun 12 2200 UTC
Skapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com

USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet

SDF Nummer 164 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 12 JUN 2000

IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 11-2100Z till 12-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THE LARGEST EVENT OF THE PERIOD WAS A C6/1B FLARE AT 12/1226Z FROM NEW REGION 9042 (N21E77). THIS REGION IS BRIGHT IN SOFT X-RAYS BUT ONLY SMALL SUNSPOTS ARE VISIBLE AT THIS TIME. MORE SPOTS ARE LIKELY TO ROTATE OVER THE LIMB. MOSTLY STABLE REGION 9036 (S22E28) GENERATED A C6/SF AT 12/0138Z. REGION 9033 (N23W09) CREATED ONLY INFREQUENT SUBFLARES. NEARBY REGION 9041 (N17W22) EMERGED AT A MODERATE PACE AND APPEARED TO BE IMPINGING UPON THE LEADER FIELDS OF REGION 9033. REGION 9026 (N22W63) WAS MOSTLY QUIET.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME MODERATE FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. REGIONS 9026 AND 9033 REMAIN CAPABLE OF M-CLASS FLARES AND ISOLATED X-CLASS EVENTS. CONTINUED EMERGENCE OF NEARBY REGION 9041 COULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN FREQUENCY OF M-CLASS EVENTS FROM THE 9033/9041 COMPLEX. FORESHORTENING OF NEW REGION 9042 PREVENTS ACCURATE ASSESSMENT OF ITS FLARE POTENTIAL.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 11-2100Z till 12-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE. SOLAR WIND VELOCITY WAS BETWEEN ABOUT 450-600 KM/S. ACE ENERGETIC PARTICLE FLUXES INCREASED DURING THE PERIOD, POSSIBLY INDICATING A SHOCK/CME IS APPROACHING THE EARTH. GOES GT 10 MEV FLUXES REMAIN ENHANCED BUT BELOW EVENT THRESHOLD.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
A GEOMAGNETIC STORM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON 13 JUN. GENERALLY, ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM LEVELS ARE PREDICTED FOR THAT DAY AND ISOLATED MAJOR STORM PERIODS ARE PROBABLE. THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD CONTINUE INTO 14 JUN WHEN UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST. QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS ARE PREDICTED FOR 15 JUN. A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR AN ENERGETIC SOLAR PROTON EVENT DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 13 JUN till 15 JUN
M-klass70%70%65%
X-klass15%15%15%
Proton20%20%20%
PCAFYELLOW
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observerad       12 JUN 193
  Prognoserat   13 JUN-15 JUN  205/210/205
  90 Day Mean        12 JUN 188
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
OBSERVED AFR/AP 11 JUN  022/032
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 12 JUN  014/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 13 JUN-15 JUN  040/046-020/020-010/012
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 13 JUN till 15 JUN
A. Medelhöga breddgrader
Aktivt20%30%25%
Små stormförhållanden40%30%15%
Svåra stormförhållanden30%15%05%
B. Höga breddgrader
Aktivt20%30%25%
Små stormförhållanden40%30%15%
Svåra stormförhållanden30%15%05%

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