Viewing archive of tisdag, 6 juni 2000
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2000 Jun 06 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 158 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 06 JUN 2000IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 05-2100Z till 06-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS HIGH. THREE MAJOR EVENTS OCCURRED IN
THE PERIOD, ALL FROM REGION 9026 (N20E10). A X1/2B FLARE WITH AN
ACCOMPANYING 560 SFU TENFLARE OCCURRED AT 06/1339UT. THIS EVENT WAS
FOLLOWED BY AN M7/2N EVENT AT 06/1401UT. THE LARGEST EVENT OF THE
PERIOD WAS AN X2/3B FLARE AT 06/1525UT. THIS EVENT ALSO PRODUCED A
TYPE II SWEEP (1189 KM/S), A TYPE IV SWEEP, A 2300 SFU TENFLARE, AND
AN 11-DEGREE LONG FILAMENT ERUPTION. A FULL-HALO CME WAS CREATED BY
THIS EVENT AND WAS MONITORED BY THE LASCO/EIT SPACECRAFT TODAY.
REGION 9026 REMAINS A LARGE REGION (800 MILLIONTHS) WITH AN "F" TYPE
BETA-GAMMA-DELTA CONFIGURATION. ONE NEW REGION WAS NUMBERED: 9034
(S10E67).
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE AT
MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS. REGION 9026 CAN BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE M-CLASS EVENTS ALONG WITH ISOLATED X-CLASS FLARES.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 05-2100Z till 06-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE WITH A SINGLE
PERIOD OF MINOR STORMING AT MID-LATITUDES FROM 06/18-2100UT. AFTER
THAT PERIOD, THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD APPEARED TO SETTLE DOWN
APPRECIABLY AND ENDED THE DAY AT QUIET LEVELS. THE D-REGION
ABSORPTION FROM THE INTENSE (X2) X-RAY EVENT EXTENDED TO THE POLAR
CAP REGIONS OF THE DAYLIGHT SIDE OF THE EARTH.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE FIRST DAY OF THE
PERIOD WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED ACTIVE PERIODS. ACTIVITY SHOULD
INCREASE TO ACTIVE TO MINOR STORMING ON THE SECOND DAY OF THE
PERIOD, DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF AN EARTH-DIRECTED FULL-HALO CME, AS
DESCRIBED ABOVE. ACTIVITY SHOULD INCREASE ON THE THIRD DAY TO MAJOR
STORM CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER LATITUDES.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 07 JUN till 09 JUN
| M-klass | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| X-klass | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Proton | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| PCAF | YELLOW | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 06 JUN 186 Prognoserat 07 JUN-09 JUN 185/195/210 90 Day Mean 06 JUN 189
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
OBSERVED AFR/AP 05 JUN 022/026 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 06 JUN 018/018 PREDICTED AFR/AP 07 JUN-09 JUN 015/018-030/035-050/075
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 07 JUN till 09 JUN
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 30% | 50% | 40% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 15% | 25% | 35% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 10% | 20% | 25% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 45% | 50% | 40% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 25% | 30% | 35% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 10% | 20% | 25% |
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