Viewing archive of fredag, 7 april 2000
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2000 Apr 07 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 098 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 07 APR 2000IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 06-2100Z till 07-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW. ONLY SMALL C FLARES HAVE
BEEN OBSERVED DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. NEW DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN
OBSERVED IN THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF REGION 8948 (S14E28) ADDING
COMPLEXITY TO THIS REGION (A DELTA MAG CONFIGURATION HAS BEEN
OBSERVED). TWO NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED, REGION 8951 (N11E74) AND
8952 (S24E49). REGION 8951 MAY BE THE LEADING EDGE OF RETURNING
REGION 8910.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. M-CLASS FLARES ARE LIKELY FROM REGION 8948 AND REGIONS
RETURNING TO THE NORTHEAST LIMB.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 06-2100Z till 07-2100Z
GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY RANGED FROM SEVERE STORM TO UNSETTLED LEVELS.
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT SEVERE LEVELS (K=8) AT THE START OF THE
DAY. ACTIVITY DECREASED TO ACTIVE LEVELS BY MID DAY AND THE FIELD
IS CURRENTLY AT UNSETTLED LEVELS. THE SOLAR WIND, AS OBSERVED BY
THE ACE SPACECRAFT, SHOWS THAT THE BULK OF THE DISTURBANCE PRODUCING
THIS STORM HAD PASSED THE SPACECRAFT BY 0800UT. THE SOLAR WIND
SPEED STILL REMAINS ELEVATED AT 600KM/S. A MINOR FORBUSH DECREASE
IS CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED BY THE THULE NEUTRON MONITOR.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 08 APR till 10 APR
| M-klass | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| X-klass | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 07 APR 175 Prognoserat 08 APR-10 APR 180/185/190 90 Day Mean 07 APR 185
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
OBSERVED AFR/AP 06 APR 034/056 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 07 APR 051/063 PREDICTED AFR/AP 08 APR-10 APR 010/030-008/015-005/010
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 08 APR till 10 APR
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 30% | 10% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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