Viewing archive of lördag, 4 mars 2000

Solaktivitetsrapport

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2000 Mar 04 2200 UTC
Skapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com

USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet

SDF Nummer 064 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 04 MAR 2000

IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 03-2100Z till 04-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. REGION 8882 (S15W83) PRODUCED TODAY'S LARGEST EVENT, A C6/SF AT 03/2345Z. TWO NEW SUNSPOT GROUPS EMERGED: REGION 8899 (S11E19) AND REGION 8900 (S15E16). REGION 8900 SHOWED STEADY GROWTH AND PRODUCED OCCASIONAL SUBFLARES. THE GROUP DEVELOPED INTO A SMALL, D-TYPE REGION BY THE END OF THE REPORTING PERIOD. REGION 8891 (S15W29) IS STILL THE LARGEST GROUP ON THE DISK BUT SHOWED SIGNS OF DECAY AND WEAKENING MAGNETIC FIELDS. AN 11 DEGREE FILAMENT NEAR N40W36 DISAPPEARED BETWEEN 0804-0900Z. X-RAY IMAGES FROM THE YOHKOH SPACECRAFT SHOWED AN ENHANCED LOOP SYSTEM FORMED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DISAPPEARANCE, SUGGESTING THAT A CME OCCURRED. ANOTHER 15 DEGREE FILAMENT NEAR S35E50 DISAPPEARED AT ABOUT 1800Z. THIS DISAPPEARANCE WAS FOLLOWED BY PARALLEL H-ALPHA RIBBONS, A WEAK X-RAY ENHANCEMENT, A WEAK TYPE II SWEEP, AND A FAINT CME SIGNATURE AS OBSERVED BY THE MAUNA LOA CORONAGRAPH, ALL OF WHICH INDICATE ERUPTION OF THE FILAMENT.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. A GRADUAL DOWNWARD TREND IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED WITH THE DEPARTURE OF REGIONS 8886 AND 8882 OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A MAJOR FLARE EVENT. REGION 8891 CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED MAJOR EVENT.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 03-2100Z till 04-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. SOLAR WIND OBSERVATIONS AT THE L1 POINT GAVE NO INDICATION OF RECENT FLARE-ASSOCIATED CORONAL MASS EJECTION ACTIVITY.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TOMORROW, WITH A POSSIBILITY FOR SOME ACTIVE PERIODS. PREDOMINANTLY UNSETTLED LEVELS SHOULD FOLLOW ON THE SECOND DAY, AND CONDITIONS SHOULD BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED ON THE THIRD DAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT, BUT DECREASING POSSIBILITY THAT A GLANCING BLOW FROM CME ACTIVITY OF 2 MARCH WILL BE SEEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 05 MAR till 07 MAR
M-klass45%45%40%
X-klass15%10%05%
Proton20%15%10%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observerad       04 MAR 200
  Prognoserat   05 MAR-07 MAR  195/190/190
  90 Day Mean        04 MAR 170
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
OBSERVED AFR/AP 03 MAR  005/005
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 04 MAR  005/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 05 MAR-07 MAR  015/018-010/015-005/010
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 05 MAR till 07 MAR
A. Medelhöga breddgrader
Aktivt25%20%15%
Små stormförhållanden15%10%05%
Svåra stormförhållanden05%05%05%
B. Höga breddgrader
Aktivt30%25%20%
Små stormförhållanden15%10%10%
Svåra stormförhållanden05%05%05%

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