Viewing archive of fredag, 3 mars 2000

Solaktivitetsrapport

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2000 Mar 03 2200 UTC
Skapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com

USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet

SDF Nummer 063 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 03 MAR 2000

IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 02-2100Z till 03-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8886 (S12W87) PRODUCED TODAY'S LARGEST EVENT, AN M4/SN AT 1046Z. THE REGION EXHIBITED BRIGHT PLAGE WITH FREQUENT FLUCTUATIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS IT APPROACHED THE WEST LIMB. REGION 8882 (S15W70) ALSO PRODUCED AN M-CLASS EVENT: AN M3/1B AT 0214Z WHICH WAS ACCOMPANIED BY A TYPE IV RADIO SWEEP EVENT. THIS REGION IS CURRENTLY THE LARGEST ON THE DISK, BUT WAS SHOWING SOME EARLY INDICATORS OF DECAY NEAR DAY'S END. REGION 8891 (S15W17) IS ALSO LARGE BUT WAS STABLE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. A FAINT CME COULD BE OBSERVED WITH THE SOHO DATA FROM THE SOUTHWEST LIMB, BEGINNING AT 0454Z. A SUBSEQUENT BRIGHT, LARGE CME WAS OBSERVED ON THE SOUTHEAST LIMB BEGINNING AT 0654Z. NEITHER OF THESE CME'S HAD AN OBVIOUS ASSOCIATED COUNTERPART ON THE DISK, IMPLYING THAT THEY BOTH ORIGINATED FROM BEHIND THE SOLAR LIMB.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED MAJOR FLARE OR PROTON PRODUCING FLARE FROM REGION 8882, OR POSSIBLY REGIONS 8886 OR 8891.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 02-2100Z till 03-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. AN INCREASE IN ACTIVITY LEVELS MAY OCCUR IN RESPONSE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A GLANCING BLOW FROM RECENT CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE M6 AND X1 FLARES OF 02 MARCH. A DIRECT HIT IS NOT LIKELY SINCE NEITHER OF THESE CME'S WERE OBSERVED AS HALO CME'S AND ARE NOT THOUGHT TO BE DIRECTED TOWARDS THE EARTH.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 04 MAR till 06 MAR
M-klass65%65%65%
X-klass20%20%20%
Proton20%20%20%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observerad       03 MAR 204
  Prognoserat   04 MAR-06 MAR  200/195/190
  90 Day Mean        03 MAR 169
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
OBSERVED AFR/AP 02 MAR  007/008
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 03 MAR  005/007
PREDICTED AFR/AP 04 MAR-06 MAR  015/028-015/025-010/020
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 04 MAR till 06 MAR
A. Medelhöga breddgrader
Aktivt25%25%20%
Små stormförhållanden15%15%10%
Svåra stormförhållanden05%05%05%
B. Höga breddgrader
Aktivt30%30%25%
Små stormförhållanden15%15%10%
Svåra stormförhållanden10%10%05%

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