Viewing archive of torsdag, 24 februari 2000

Solaktivitetsrapport

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2000 Feb 24 2200 UTC
Skapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com

USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet

SDF Nummer 055 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 24 FEB 2000

IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 23-2100Z till 24-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. AN OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED M1 FLARE OCCURRED AT 24/0111Z. THERE ARE SOME TENTATIVE INDICATIONS THAT THIS EVENT ORIGINATED FROM NEW REGION 8889 NEAR N19E67. THIS REGION IS A MODERATE SIZE D CLASS GROUP BUT FORESHORTENING MAY BE MASKING ITS TRUE SIZE. A TOTAL OF THREE OTHER REGIONS IN THE EASTERN HEMISPHERE BECAME VISIBLE BUT, AT THIS TIME, NONE APPEARED LARGE OR COMPLEX. THERE MAY BE ONE OR MORE REGIONS STILL BEHIND THE EAST LIMB.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE PREDOMINANTLY MODERATE FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. THE POSSIBILITY OF A MAJOR FLARE FROM NEAR EAST LIMB REGIONS IS A POSSIBILITY. ONCE THESE LONGITUDES BECOME VISIBLE, A BETTER ASSESSMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 23-2100Z till 24-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD BEGAN THE PERIOD AT QUIET LEVELS AND WAS AT ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM LEVELS AFTER 24/0300Z. SOLAR WIND VELOCITY INCREASED TO SLIGHTLY OVER 800 KM/S AND DENSITY DECLINED TO LOW LEVELS INDICATING THE EARTH IS IMMERSED IN THE PREVIOUSLY FORECAST CORONAL HOLE STREAM. THE SOURCE HOLE ON THE SUN IS SLIGHTLY MORE ELONGATED THAN LAST SOLAR ROTATION.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD BE PREDOMINANTLY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE FOR 25-26 FEB. OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF MINOR STORMING ARE LIKELY DURING THAT PERIOD. THIS CORONAL HOLE RELATED DISTURBANCE SHOULD BEGIN TO EBB ON 27 FEB WHEN QUIET TO SLIGHTLY ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT SHOULD BECOME ELEVATED TO HIGH LEVELS ON 25 FEB.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 25 FEB till 27 FEB
M-klass75%75%75%
X-klass10%10%10%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observerad       24 FEB 192
  Prognoserat   25 FEB-27 FEB  195/197/200
  90 Day Mean        24 FEB 164
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
OBSERVED AFR/AP 23 FEB  008/009
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 24 FEB  024/023
PREDICTED AFR/AP 25 FEB-27 FEB  025/020-018/018-012/015
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 25 FEB till 27 FEB
A. Medelhöga breddgrader
Aktivt40%50%30%
Små stormförhållanden35%25%15%
Svåra stormförhållanden05%05%01%
B. Höga breddgrader
Aktivt40%50%30%
Små stormförhållanden40%25%15%
Svåra stormförhållanden10%05%01%

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