Viewing archive of lördag, 12 februari 2000
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 2000 Feb 12 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 043 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 12 FEB 2000IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 11-2100Z till 12-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8858 (N25W38)
PRODUCED AN M1/1N FLARE AT 0410Z. THE EVENT INCLUDED TYPE II AND IV
SWEEP, AS WELL AS MODERATE (340 SFU AT 245 MHZ) DISCRETE RADIO
BURSTS ACROSS THE SPECTRUM. THAT EVENT WAS THE HIGHLIGHT OF AN
OTHERWISE QUIET DAY. THE ELEVEN SPOTTED REGIONS COULD BE DESCRIBED
AS GENERALLY BEING IN A STATE OF DECAY.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 11-2100Z till 12-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD VARIED FROM UNSETTLED TO SEVERE STORM LEVELS.
BOULDER MEASURED A SUDDEN COMMENCEMENT OF 19 NT AT 11/2353Z. MINOR
TO SEVERE STORM CONDITIONS FOLLOWED OVER THE NEXT 15 HOURS. THIS
ACTIVITY IS THOUGHT TO BE THE RESULT OF THE PASSAGE OF A CME THAT
LEFT THE SUN ON 09 FEBRUARY. THE GREATER THAN 10 MEV PROTON FLUX AT
GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS SLIGHTLY ENHANCED, STARTING AROUND 0600Z.
THE PEAK VALUE WAS 2 PFU AT 1120Z.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT MINOR STORM LEVELS THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AS EFFECTS
FROM TODAY'S STORM LINGER. THE SOLAR WIND SPEED IS STILL NEAR 550
KM/S. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH BY 14 FEBRUARY, FINALLY YIELDING TO
UNSETTLED LEVELS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. NIGHTTIME SUBSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 13 FEB till 15 FEB
| M-klass | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| X-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 12 FEB 163 Prognoserat 13 FEB-15 FEB 160/155/150 90 Day Mean 12 FEB 170
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
OBSERVED AFR/AP 11 FEB 010/013 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 12 FEB 045/048 PREDICTED AFR/AP 13 FEB-15 FEB 030/035-020/020-010/010
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 13 FEB till 15 FEB
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 20% | 40% | 30% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 50% | 40% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 20% | 10% | 05% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 10% | 30% | 40% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 60% | 50% | 20% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 25% | 15% | 05% |
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Rymdvädersfakta
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