Viewing archive of söndag, 14 november 1999
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 1999 Nov 14 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 318 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 14 NOV 1999IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 13-2100Z till 14-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS HIGH. SEVERAL M-CLASS EVENTS
OCCURRED DURING THE PERIOD. REGION 8763 (S16E18) PRODUCED AN M8/2B
AT 13/0801Z, REGION 8766 (N17E57) PRODUCED AN M5/2N AT 13/1607Z,
REGION 8765 (S14E32) PRODUCED AN M2/SN AT 13/1623Z, REGION 8759
(N12W20) PRODUCED AN M1/SF AT 13/1704Z, AND ONE OPTICALLY
UNCORRELATED M2 OCCURRED AT 13/1809Z. REGION 8765 IS THE LARGEST
REGION ON THE DISK WITH AN AREA OF 640 MILLIONTHS. THE MOST DYNAMIC
REGION IS REGION 8766 WHICH CONTAINS A STRONG DELTA CONFIGURATION.
TWO NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED TODAY AS REGION 8767 (N44W28) AND
REGION 8768 (N16E33).
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD. REGIONS 8759, 8763, 8765, AND 8766
ALL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR M-CLASS EVENTS AND AN ISOLATED X-CLASS EVENT.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 13-2100Z till 14-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS GENERALLY QUIET TO ACTIVE. MINOR STORM
CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED AT HIGH LATITUDES DURING THE NIGHTTIME
SECTORS.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 15 NOV till 17 NOV
| M-klass | 90% | 90% | 90% |
| X-klass | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | YELLOW | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 14 NOV 219 Prognoserat 15 NOV-17 NOV 215/210/210 90 Day Mean 14 NOV 163
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
OBSERVED AFR/AP 13 NOV 022/031 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 14 NOV 012/012 PREDICTED AFR/AP 15 NOV-17 NOV 008/015-010/018-010/015
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 15 NOV till 17 NOV
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 30% | 35% | 30% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 10% | 05% |
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