Visa arkiv av torsdag 11 november 1999

Solaktivitetsrapport

Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 1999 Nov 11 2200 UTC
Skapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com

USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet

SDF Nummer 315 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 11 NOV 1999

IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 10-2100Z till 11-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED MODERATE. EARLY IN THE PERIOD, REGION 8753 (N18W36) PRODUCED AN M1/1N FLARE AT 10/2213Z. MODERATE CENTIMETRIC RADIO BURSTS ACCOMPANIED THIS EVENT. DECAY OCCURRED IN THIS REGION IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. REGION 8759 (N10E20) GENERATED A C8/1N AT 11/1449Z. THIS REGION ALSO DECAYED IN WHITE LIGHT AREA DURING THE PERIOD. REGION 8760 (N13W17) PRODUCED SEVERAL SUBFLARES AND CONTINUED TO EMERGE BUT AT A SLOW RATE. A MODERATE SIZE NEW REGION, 8765 (S10E73), ROTATED OVER THE LIMB BEHIND REGION 8763 (S14E60). REGION 8763 PRODUCED SEVERAL LOW LEVEL C-CLASS FLARES.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY MODERATE. REGIONS 8759 AND 8760 REMAIN AS THE LIKELY SOURCES OF M-CLASS FLARES DUE TO THEIR SIZE AND SLIGHTLY MIXED MAGNETIC FIELDS. HOWEVER, SEVERAL OTHER LESSER REGIONS COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENTS. THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF A MAJOR FLARE FROM REGIONS 8759 AND 8760. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 10/2100Z TO 11/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT QUIET TO MINOR STORM LEVELS. THE MOST DISTURBED PERIOD WAS FROM 11/0300-1200Z. SOLAR WIND VELOCITY INCREASED TO AROUND 650 KM/S AND DENSITY REMAINED LOW INDICATING THE EARTH REMAINS IN THE CORONAL HOLE STREAM MENTIONED OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT REACHED HIGH LEVELS DURING THE PERIOD. NO SOHO CORONAGRAPH DATA HAVE BEEN AVAILABLE SINCE 08 NOV.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD REMAIN DISTURBED ON 12 NOV. ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM LEVELS ARE EXPECTED ON THAT DAY. ON 13 NOV, THE FIELD SHOULD BECOME UNSETTLED TO SLIGHTLY ACTIVE AS THE CURRENT CORONAL HOLE RELATED DISTURBANCE SUBSIDES. MOSTLY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR 14 NOV. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 12 NOV till 14 NOV
M-klass70%70%70%
X-klass15%15%15%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observerad       11 NOV 240
  Prognoserat   12 NOV-14 NOV  242/245/245
  90 Day Mean        11 NOV 159
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
OBSERVED AFR/AP 10 NOV  013/012
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 11 NOV  023/025
PREDICTED AFR/AP 12 NOV-14 NOV  018/018-010/010-008/008
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 12 NOV till 14 NOV
A. Medelhöga breddgrader
Aktivt40%30%10%
Små stormförhållanden25%15%05%
Svåra stormförhållanden05%01%01%
B. Höga breddgrader
Aktivt40%30%15%
Små stormförhållanden30%15%05%
Svåra stormförhållanden10%01%01%

Gå till översikt idag

Senaste nytt

Stöd SpaceWeatherLive.com!

För att vara tillgängliga vid stora norrskensutbrott måsta vi ha kraftiga servrar som kan hantera alla besökare. Donera och stöd vårt projekt, så att vi kan finnas online även under stora stormar!

100%

Rymdvädersfakta

Senaste X-utbrottet:10/09/2017X8.2
Senaste M-utbrottet:20/10/2017M1.0
Senaste geomagnetiska stormen:26/10/2019Kp5 (G1)
Dagar utan solfläckar i 2019:271
Dagar utan solfläckar just nu:44

I dag i historien*

Solutbrott
12002M2.5
22002M1.9
32001M1.5
42002M1.3
52001M1.0
ApG
1199520G1
2199417
3200413
4200612
5199812
*sedan 1994

Sociala medier