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Solaktivitetsrapport

Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 1999 Nov 10 2200 UTC
Skapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com

USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet

SDF Nummer 314 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 10 NOV 1999

IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 09-2100Z till 10-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY CONTINUED AT A MODERATE LEVEL. REGION 8759 (N10E33) PRODUCED AN M1/1N AT 10/0140Z. THIS REGION SHOWED SLIGHT DECAY. RECENT VECTOR MAGNETOGRAPH DATA INDICATE VERY LITTLE MAGNETIC SHEAR IN THIS LARGE REGION. REGION 8753 (N19W23) BEGAN A GROWTH PHASE EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND PRODUCED AN IMPULSIVE M1/SF AT 10/1549Z. THE NUMBER OF SMALL SPOTS IN THIS REGION NEARLY DOUBLED IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. REGION 8760 (N13W03) GENERATED A C5/SF AT 10/0334Z. THE RATE OF GROWTH IN THIS REGION SLOWED DURING THE PERIOD. REGION 8761 (N20E26) PRODUCED A C9/SF AT 10/1952Z. A MODERATE SIZE CLASS C SUNSPOT GROUP APPEARED AT S13E75 AND WAS NUMBERED AS NEW REGION 8763. THIS AREA PRODUCED SEVERAL SMALL C-CLASS FLARES DURING THE PERIOD.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN AT MODERATE LEVELS FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. REGIONS 8753, 8759, 8761 AND 8760 ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING OCCASIONAL M-CLASS EVENTS. THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A MAJOR FLARE FROM REGIONS 8759 AND 8760. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 09/2100Z TO 10/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE. THE MOST DISTURBED PERIOD WAS FROM 09/2100-10/0000Z. DURING THE PERIOD, SOLAR WIND VELOCITY SLOWLY DECREASED TO NEAR 520 KM/S. THIS DECREASE WAS NOT OBSERVED FROM THIS CORONAL HOLE LAST SOLAR ROTATION. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT REACHED HIGH LEVELS DURING THE PERIOD.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINANTLY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE FOR 11-12 NOV. ISOLATED MINOR STORM PERIODS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THAT TIME. IT IS UNLIKELY THAT THE EXTENSIVE AND FAVORABLY POSITIONED CORONAL HOLE STREAM WOULD CEASE BEFORE 12 NOV. QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS ARE EXPECTED FOR 13 NOV. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT GEOSYNCRONOUS ORBIT SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 11 NOV till 13 NOV
M-klass80%80%80%
X-klass15%15%15%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observerad       10 NOV 249
  Prognoserat   11 NOV-13 NOV  255/260/262
  90 Day Mean        10 NOV 158
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
OBSERVED AFR/AP 09 NOV  024/025
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 10 NOV  014/014
PREDICTED AFR/AP 11 NOV-13 NOV  018/018-018/018-010/010
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 11 NOV till 13 NOV
A. Medelhöga breddgrader
Aktivt40%40%25%
Små stormförhållanden20%20%05%
Svåra stormförhållanden05%05%01%
B. Höga breddgrader
Aktivt40%40%30%
Små stormförhållanden25%25%05%
Svåra stormförhållanden10%10%01%

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