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Solaktivitetsrapport

Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 1999 Nov 09 2200 UTC
Skapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com

USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet

SDF Nummer 313 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 09 NOV 1999

IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 08-2100Z till 09-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY BECAME MODERATE. REGION 8759 (N10E46) PRODUCED A MODERATE DURATION M1/1F AT 09/2009Z. THIS REGION IS LARGE AND WAS GENERALLY STABLE BUT EXHIBITED SOME MIXED POLARITIES INCLUDING A WEAK DELTA CONFIGURATION IN THE TRAILER WHERE THE M1 FLARE WAS LOCATED. REGION 8760 (N14E10) CONTINUED TO EMERGE AT A MODERATELY FAST PACE AND PRODUCED A C8/2B AT 09/0607Z WITH MINOR RADIO BURSTS. IN ADDITION TO FREQUENT SUBFLARES, THIS REGION EXHIBITED BRIGHT PLAGE FOR ALMOST ALL OF THE PERIOD. THERE WERE INDICATIONS THAT A MODERATE SIZE REGION IS RETURNING TO THE SOUTHEAST LIMB.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE GENERALLY MODERATE FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. BOTH REGIONS 8759 AND 8760 ARE CAPABLE OF GENERATING M-CLASS FLARES. REGION 8759 COULD PRODUCE AN ISOLATED X-CLASS EVENT. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 08/2100Z TO 09/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM UNSETTLED TO MINOR STORM LEVELS. THE MOST DISTURBED PERIOD WAS FROM 09/0900-1200Z. SOME HIGH LATITUDE SITES EXPERIENCED BRIEF PERIODS OF MAJOR STORMING. THIS DISTURBANCE IS CORONAL HOLE RELATED. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BECAME HIGH NEAR 09/1035Z.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
THE CURRENT GEOMAGNETIC FIELD DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. PERIODS OF MINOR STORMING AT MID LATITUDES, AND MAJOR STORMING AT HIGH LATITUDES, ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE PERIOD. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES SHOULD REMAIN HIGH FOR APPROXIMATELY ONE WEEK. THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF A SOLAR PROTON EVENT DURING THE PERIOD.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 10 NOV till 12 NOV
M-klass75%75%75%
X-klass15%15%15%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observerad       09 NOV 230
  Prognoserat   10 NOV-12 NOV  215/220/225
  90 Day Mean        09 NOV 157
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
OBSERVED AFR/AP 08 NOV  019/033
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 09 NOV  025/029
PREDICTED AFR/AP 10 NOV-12 NOV  020/027-018/025-018/020
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 10 NOV till 12 NOV
A. Medelhöga breddgrader
Aktivt40%40%40%
Små stormförhållanden30%25%25%
Svåra stormförhållanden15%15%15%
B. Höga breddgrader
Aktivt40%40%40%
Små stormförhållanden35%35%30%
Svåra stormförhållanden20%20%15%

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