Viewing archive of måndag, 8 november 1999

Solaktivitetsrapport

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 1999 Nov 08 2200 UTC
Skapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com

USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet

SDF Nummer 312 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 08 NOV 1999

IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 07-2100Z till 08-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED AT A LOW LEVEL. THE LARGEST EVENT OF THE PERIOD WAS A MODERATE DURATION C8/SF FROM REGION 8759 (N13E59) AT 08/1852Z. THIS REGION HAS WHITE LIGHT AREA OF OVER 800 MILLIONTHS AND MIXED MAGNETIC FIELDS. THERE MAY BE A WEAK DELTA CONFIGURATION IN THE TRAILER OF THIS REGION. DEPARTING REGION 8749 (S18W88) PRODUCED A C5/SF AT 08/0602Z. REGION 8760 EMERGED STEADILY DURING THE PERIOD AND PRODUCED A C4/SN AT 08/1117Z.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME MODERATE DURING THE PERIOD. THE LARGE AREA AND MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY OF REGION 8759 INDICATE THAT M-CLASS EVENTS ARE PROBABLE FROM THIS AREA. THE FREQUENCY OF M-CLASS FLARES SHOULD BE EVERY 1-2 DAYS SINCE THE REGION DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE GROWING. REGION 8760 SHOULD BEGIN TO PRODUCE MORE C-CLASS EVENTS AS IT MATURES. THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY OF AN X-CLASS EVENT FROM REGION 8759 DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 07-2100Z till 08-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM UNSETTLED TO MAJOR STORM LEVELS. THE MOST DISTURBED PERIOD WAS FROM 08/0600-1500Z. A FEW HIGH LATITUDE SITES EXPERIENCED BRIEF SEVERE STORM LEVELS DURING THAT PERIOD. SOLAR WIND DATA INDICATE THIS DISTURBANCE IS CORONAL HOLE RELATED.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD REMAIN DISTURBED THROUGHOUT THE NEXT THREE DAYS. MID LATITUDES CAN EXPECT OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF MINOR STORMING AND HIGH LATITUDES SHOULD EXPERIENCE ISOLATED PERIODS OF MAJOR STORMING. THE CORONAL HOLE CAUSING THIS DISTURBANCE IS QUITE WIDE AND THE HIGH SPEED STREAM FROM IT SHOULD IMPACT THE EARTH FOR APPROXIMATELY THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 09 NOV till 11 NOV
M-klass70%70%70%
X-klass15%15%15%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observerad       08 NOV 192
  Prognoserat   09 NOV-11 NOV  190/192/194
  90 Day Mean        08 NOV 156
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
OBSERVED AFR/AP 07 NOV  020/024
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 08 NOV  022/032
PREDICTED AFR/AP 09 NOV-11 NOV  020/037-020/035-018/025
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 09 NOV till 11 NOV
A. Medelhöga breddgrader
Aktivt40%40%40%
Små stormförhållanden30%30%30%
Svåra stormförhållanden15%15%15%
B. Höga breddgrader
Aktivt40%40%40%
Små stormförhållanden35%35%35%
Svåra stormförhållanden20%20%20%

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