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Solaktivitetsrapport

Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 1999 Oct 22 2200 UTC
Skapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com

USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet

: : : : : : : CORRECTED COPY : : : : : : : SDF Nummer 295 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 22 OCT 1999

IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 21-2100Z till 22-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THE LARGEST EVENT OF THE PERIOD WAS A C4/SF IN REGION 8732 (N20W89) AT 22/0915Z. TWO TYPE II'S OCCURRED AT 22/0853Z AND 22/1300Z, LIKELY DUE TO THE CME ACTIVITY IN THE CLUSTER OF REGIONS TRANSITING THE NORTHWEST LIMB. REGIONS 8737 (S15W26) AND 8739 (S13E43) BOTH EXHIBITED GROWTH THIS PERIOD WITH REGION 8739 PRODUCING A 1F/SF AT 22/1929Z. NEW REGIONS 8740 (N27W83) AND 8741 (S25E64) WERE NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT IS STILL POSSIBLE FROM REGIONS 8731 (N12W79) AND REGION 8732, AS THEY ROTATE AROUND THE WEST LIMB. C-CLASS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY FROM REGIONS 8737 AND 8739. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 21/2100Z TO 22/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT ACTIVE TO SEVERE STORM LEVELS. THIS STORM WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUDDEN IMPULSE (SI) OBSERVED AT 21/0226Z. A SUSTAINED PERIOD OF RELATIVE CALM FOLLOWED THE SI, BUT CONDITIONS CHANGED CONSIDERABLY AROUND 21/2240Z. A DRAMATIC CHANGE IN THE IMF BZ TO A STRONG SOUTHWARD ORIENTATION PRODUCED SEVERE CONDITIONS AT MID AND HIGH LATITUDES. THE DISTURBANCE BEGAN TO WANE SOON AFTER 22/1200Z. ACTIVE CONDITIONS HAVE PERSISTED SINCE.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE AT ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM LEVELS WITH ISOLATED MAJOR STORM PERIODS LIKELY AT HIGH LATITUDES. A FAVORABLY POSITIONED GEOEFFECTIVE CORONAL HOLE SHOULD RESULT IN UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE CONDITIONS THROUGH ALL THREE DAYS.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 23 OCT till 25 OCT
M-klass40%35%30%
X-klass10%05%05%
Proton10%05%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observerad       22 OCT 160
  Prognoserat   23 OCT-25 OCT  155/145/140
  90 Day Mean        22 OCT 158
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
OBSERVED AFR/AP 21 OCT  014/015
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 22 OCT  055/090
PREDICTED AFR/AP 23 OCT-25 OCT  025/040-020/030-020/020
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 23 OCT till 25 OCT
A. Medelhöga breddgrader
Aktivt30%30%30%
Små stormförhållanden40%40%30%
Svåra stormförhållanden10%10%05%
B. Höga breddgrader
Aktivt30%40%40%
Små stormförhållanden50%40%40%
Svåra stormförhållanden20%20%10%

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