Visa arkiv av torsdag 21 oktober 1999

Solaktivitetsrapport

Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 1999 Oct 21 2200 UTC
Skapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com

USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet

SDF Nummer 294 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 21 OCT 1999

IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 20-2100Z till 21-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THERE WERE SEVERAL C-CLASS SUBFLARES DURING THE DAY. MOST OF THESE WERE FROM REGIONS 8732 (N21W76) AND 8739 (S12E58). REGIONS 8739 AND 8737 (S15W12) BOTH SHOWED GROWTH DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. REGION 8731 (N12W68) CONTINUES TO BE THE LARGEST REGION ON THE DISK BUT WAS RELATIVELY QUIET AND STABLE.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. REGIONS 8731 AND 8732 CONTINUE TO BE THE MOST LIKELY SOURCES FOR ENERGETIC FLARES. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 20/2100Z TO 21/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE. A SUDDEN IMPULSE WAS OBSERVED AT 0226Z, WHICH WAS PRECEDED BY A SHOCK OBSERVED AT THE ACE SPACECRAFT AT 0138Z. THE SHOCK WAS FOLLOWED BY AN INTERPLANETARY TRANSIENT, BUT THE TRANSIENT WAS NOT VERY GEOEFFECTIVE: ONLY ONE ACTIVE PERIOD OCCURRED FROM 0300-0600Z. THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUXES EXCEEDED HIGH LEVELS.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR SOME ENHANCED ACTIVITY DURING LOCAL NIGHTTIME HOURS. CONDITIONS SHOULD SUBSIDE A BIT ON THE SECOND DAY, BUT ANOTHER INCREASE IS ANTICIPATED ON THE THIRD DAY IN RESPONSE TO A FAVORABLY POSITIONED CORONAL HOLE.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 22 OCT till 24 OCT
M-klass40%35%30%
X-klass10%05%05%
Proton10%05%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observerad       21 OCT 159
  Prognoserat   22 OCT-24 OCT  150/145/140
  90 Day Mean        21 OCT 158
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
OBSERVED AFR/AP 20 OCT  004/004
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 21 OCT  012/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 22 OCT-24 OCT  015/020-015/010-020/015
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 22 OCT till 24 OCT
A. Medelhöga breddgrader
Aktivt40%40%50%
Små stormförhållanden20%20%30%
Svåra stormförhållanden05%05%10%
B. Höga breddgrader
Aktivt50%50%40%
Små stormförhållanden25%25%35%
Svåra stormförhållanden15%15%20%

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