Viewing archive of torsdag, 14 oktober 1999
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 1999 Oct 14 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 287 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 14 OCT 1999IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 13-2100Z till 14-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS HIGH. REGION 8731 (N29E24) PRODUCED
AN X1/1N FLARE AT 0900Z. THE EVENT WAS RATHER IMPULSIVE BUT WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH TYPE II AND TYPE IV RADIO SWEEPS. REGION 8731 HAS
SHOWN REMARKABLE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS, AND IS
CURRENTLY THE LARGEST REGION ON THE DISK. THERE APPEARS TO BE A
DELTA SPOT FORMING IN THE CENTER OF THE REGION, JUST IN FRONT OF THE
DOMINANT TRAILER. REGION 8732 (N20E16) HAS ALSO SHOWN GROWTH BUT WAS
QUIET. REGION 8728 (N22E00) APPEARS TO HAVE SIMPLIFIED SOMEWHAT OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS. OTHER ACTIVITY TODAY CONSISTED OF A FEW C-CLASS
SUBFLARES. A HIGH LATITUDE POLAR CROWN FILAMENT NEAR N70W50
DISAPPEARED BETWEEN 13/1524Z AND 14/1529Z.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MOSTLY MODERATE, WITH THE MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY FROM REGION 8731.IF
THE CURRENT TREND IN 8731 CONTINUES THERE IS A FAIR CHANCE FOR AN
ADDITIONAL MAJOR FLARE FROM THIS REGION SOMETIME DURING THE NEXT
THREE DAYS. REGIONS 8732 AND 8728 MAY ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO THE
PRODUCTION OF MODERATE LEVELS OF ACTIVITY.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 13-2100Z till 14-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY ACTIVE. THERE WAS A PERIOD OF MINOR
STORM LEVELS AT HIGH LATITUDE FROM 1500-1800Z. SOLAR WIND
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF A HIGH SPEED STREAM
WHICH IS ORIGINATING FROM A WELL-POSITIONED CORONAL HOLE. THE
GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUXES ATTAINED HIGH LEVELS DURING THE
PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE ACTIVE TOMORROW AS THE CURRENT DISTURBANCE CONTINUES.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO DECLINE ON THE 2ND DAY, ALTHOUGH THERE
MAY BE SOME LINGERING EFFECTS EARLY IN THE DAY. MOSTLY UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL BY THE THIRD DAY.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 15 OCT till 17 OCT
| M-klass | 65% | 65% | 65% |
| X-klass | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Proton | 10% | 15% | 20% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 14 OCT 200 Prognoserat 15 OCT-17 OCT 200/200/200 90 Day Mean 14 OCT 156
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
OBSERVED AFR/AP 13 OCT 021/026 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 14 OCT 020/022 PREDICTED AFR/AP 15 OCT-17 OCT 020/025-010/020-010/015
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 15 OCT till 17 OCT
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 30% | 10% | 10% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 25% | 15% | 15% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 10% | 01% | 01% |
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