Viewing archive of fredag, 17 september 1999

Solaktivitetsrapport

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 1999 Sep 17 2200 UTC
Skapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com

USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet

SDF Nummer 260 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 17 SEP 1999

IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 16-2100Z till 17-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY INCREASED TO MODERATE LEVELS. REGION 8690 (N16W74) SHOWED GRADUAL DECAY AS IT APPROACHED THE WEST LIMB. IT PRODUCED AN M2/SF AT 17/0120Z. REGION 8700 (N13E20) SHOWED SOME MIXED POLARITIES AS IT GRADUALLY DECAYED AND PRODUCED ISOLATED C-CLASS SUBFLARES. A PARTIAL-HALO CME WAS OBSERVED FOLLOWING YESTERDAY'S (16/1508 - 1615Z) 50-DEGREE DSF. NEW REGIONS 8702 (N22E15), 8703 (N21W92), AND 8704 (S21E63) WERE NUMBERED. REGION 8704 APPEARED TO BE THE RETURN OF OLD REGION 8674, WHICH PRODUCED MAJOR FLARES DURING ITS PREVIOUS ROTATIONS. THUS FAR, IT HAS BEEN A STABLE H-TYPE GROUP.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN M-CLASS FLARE FROM REGIONS 8690 AND 8700.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 16-2100Z till 17-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS WITH PERIODS OF MINOR TO MAJOR STORMING DETECTED AT HIGH LATITUDES. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX REACHED HIGH LEVELS DURING THE PERIOD.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE AT MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS DURING THE FIRST DAY. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM LEVELS LATE ON 19 SEPTEMBER DUE TO YESTERDAY'S DSF/CME. STORM LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX IS EXPECTED TO BE AT MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS DURING THE PERIOD.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 18 SEP till 20 SEP
M-klass15%15%15%
X-klass01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observerad       17 SEP 158
  Prognoserat   18 SEP-20 SEP  160/165/170
  90 Day Mean        17 SEP 164
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
OBSERVED AFR/AP 16 SEP  018/032
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 17 SEP  012/020
PREDICTED AFR/AP 18 SEP-20 SEP  015/015-015/015-030/030
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 18 SEP till 20 SEP
A. Medelhöga breddgrader
Aktivt30%50%50%
Små stormförhållanden10%30%30%
Svåra stormförhållanden05%10%10%
B. Höga breddgrader
Aktivt40%50%50%
Små stormförhållanden15%30%30%
Svåra stormförhållanden05%10%10%

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