Viewing archive of onsdag, 20 januari 1999

Solaktivitetsrapport

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 1999 Jan 20 2200 UTC
Skapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com

USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet

SDF Nummer 020 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 20 JAN 1999

IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 19-2100Z till 20-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS HIGH. A LONG DURATION M-5 X-RAY EVENT OCCURRED AT 20/2003Z. THE SOURCE OF THIS EVENT IS SUSPECTED TO BE FROM JUST BEHIND THE NORTHEAST LIMB DUE TO A CME REPORTED BY THE MAUNA LOA SOLAR OBSERVATORY. A TYPE IV, AND A TYPE II SWEEP WITH A SHOCK SPEED OF 800 KM/S WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS EVENT. AN 230 SFU TENFLARE WAS ALSO DETECTED. REGIONS 8439 (S23W29) AND 8440 (N19W25) CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT PLAGE FLUCTUATIONS AND POINT BRIGHTENINGS. SEVERAL MINOR C-CLASS X-RAY FLARES AND OPTICAL SUBFLARES ALSO OCCURRED DURING THE PERIOD. REGION 8442 (N24W55) HAS DECAYED FROM 11 SPOTS WITH A BETA-GAMMA DELTA MAGNETIC CLASSIFICATION DOWN TO 7 SPOTS AND A MORE SIMPLE BETA MAGNETIC CLASSIFICATION. NO NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE. REGIONS 8439 AND 8440 ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENTS. ANOTHER ISOLATED EVENT COULD OCCUR FROM THE REGION JUST BEHIND THE NORTH EAST LIMB.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 19-2100Z till 20-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED. THERE IS A CHANCE OF A PROTON EVENT AT GREATER THAN 10MEV AS A RESULT OF TODAY'S M5 X-RAY EVENT. IF THE EVENT DOES OCCUR, PROTONS ARE EXPECTED AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT IN ABOUT 24 TO 36 HOURS
III. Chans för solutbrott från 21 JAN till 23 JAN
M-klass60%50%50%
X-klass10%10%10%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observerad       20 JAN 172
  Prognoserat   21 JAN-23 JAN  178/185/185
  90 Day Mean        20 JAN 141
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
OBSERVED AFR/AP 19 JAN  003/005
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 20 JAN  008/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 21 JAN-23 JAN  012/012-012/014-012/014
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 21 JAN till 23 JAN
A. Medelhöga breddgrader
Aktivt25%25%25%
Små stormförhållanden05%05%05%
Svåra stormförhållanden01%01%01%
B. Höga breddgrader
Aktivt35%35%30%
Små stormförhållanden15%15%10%
Svåra stormförhållanden01%01%01%

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