Viewing archive of onsdag, 7 oktober 1998
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 1998 Oct 07 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 280 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 07 OCT 1998IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 06-2100Z till 07-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY BECAME MODERATE. REGION 8355 (S21E64)
DEVELOPED RAPIDLY AND PRODUCED THE MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY. SEVEN
C-CLASS AND TWO M-CLASS X-RAY EVENTS OCCURRED. AN M1/1N OCCURRED AT
07/1247Z AND A M2/SF AT 07/1712Z. LIMB PROXIMITY IS PREVENTING AN
ACCURATE ANALYSIS BUT EARLY INDICATIONS SUGGEST A STRONG MAGNETIC
GRADIENT EXISTS AND A DELTA CONFIGURATION LIKELY EXIST IN THE
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THIS REGION. REGION 8350 (N19E02) CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE MINOR SUBFLARING BUT HAS SHOWN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. TWO
REGIONS WERE NUMBERED TODAY, REGION 8354 (S18E00), AND REGION 8355
(S21E64).
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE TO HIGH. REGION 8355 IS STILL DEVELOPING. FURTHER M-CLASS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AND IF GROWTH CONTINUES AT ITS PRESENT RATE,
X-CLASS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 06-2100Z till 07-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT QUIET TO MINOR STORM LEVELS. SOLAR
WIND SPEED HAS BEEN ON A STEADY INCREASE SINCE YESTERDAY'S SHOCK WAS
OBSERVED AT L1 AT 06/1530Z. BZ FINALLY WENT SOUTHWARD AROUND 07/10Z
AND ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM CONDITIONS FOLLOWED.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE, BECOMING QUIET TO UNSETTLED LATE
IN THE PERIOD AS THE PRESENT DISTURBANCE SUBSIDES.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 08 OCT till 10 OCT
| M-klass | 65% | 65% | 65% |
| X-klass | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 07 OCT 124 Prognoserat 08 OCT-10 OCT 130/135/138 90 Day Mean 07 OCT 129
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
OBSERVED AFR/AP 06 OCT 002/006 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 07 OCT 020/020 PREDICTED AFR/AP 08 OCT-10 OCT 015/015-005/008-005/008
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 08 OCT till 10 OCT
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 40% | 10% | 10% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 50% | 15% | 08% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 15% | 01% | 01% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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