Viewing archive of fredag, 18 september 1998
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 1998 Sep 18 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 261 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 18 SEP 1998IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 17-2100Z till 18-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. REGION 8339 (S16E30)
EXHIBITED SOME MINOR GROWTH AND PRODUCED SEVERAL SUBFLARES DURING
THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. NO SIGNIFICANT X-RAY ENHANCEMENTS
ACCOMPANIED THESE FLARES. REGION 8340 (N22E64) IS LIKELY THE MOST
COMPLEX REGION ON THE VISIBLE DISK BUT ITS LIMB PROXIMITY IS STILL
HAMPERING A DETAILED ANALYSIS. PERIODS OF SURGING WITH SEVERAL PLAGE
FLUCTUATIONS WERE NOTED IN THIS REGION AND A SMALL FILAMENT ERUPTED
LATE IN THE PERIOD. A PROMINENCE ERUPTED OFF THE SW LIMB AT
17/2250Z. THE REMAINING REGIONS WERE QUIET.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW TO LOW. THOUGH NO FLARING HAS YET OCCURRED IN REGION 8340, ITS
SIZE AND APPARENT COMPLEXITY WILL LIKELY PRODUCE ISOLATED C-CLASS
FLARING.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 17-2100Z till 18-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET UNTIL APPROXIMATELY 18/1100Z. A
DISTURBANCE BEGAN AT THAT TIME PRODUCING UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE
CONDITIONS WITH AN ISOLATED PERIOD OF MAJOR STORMING AT HIGH
LATITUDES. PREDOMINANTLY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED AT ALL LATITUDES SINCE 18/1500Z.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE. A LARGE EXTENSION OF THE
NORTHERN CORONAL HOLE WILL MOVE INTO FAVORABLE POSITION FOR
GEOEFFECTIVENESS BY LATE TOMORROW. DISTURBED CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 19 SEP till 21 SEP
| M-klass | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| X-klass | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 18 SEP 123 Prognoserat 19 SEP-21 SEP 125/130/130 90 Day Mean 18 SEP 127
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
OBSERVED AFR/AP 17 SEP 005/007 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 18 SEP 017/010 PREDICTED AFR/AP 19 SEP-21 SEP 015/015-015/015-015/020
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 19 SEP till 21 SEP
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 45% | 45% | 45% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 05% | 10% | 10% |
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