Viewing archive of onsdag, 19 augusti 1998
Solaktivitetsrapport
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 1998 Aug 19 2200 UTCSkapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com
USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet
SDF Nummer 231 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 19 AUG 1998IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 18-2100Z till 19-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN HIGH. AN X4.9 OCCURRED AT
18/2210 AND WAS ASSOCIATED WITH REGION 8307 (N32E72). AN M2.3 AT
19/1222 AND M3.0 AT 19/1404 WERE ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THIS REGION.
THIS REGION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE X- AND M-CLASS
FLARES.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MODERATE
TO HIGH THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS REGION 8307 MOVES TOWARDS THE
CENTER OF THE DISK.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 18-2100Z till 19-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE WITH PERIODS OF MINOR STORM AT
HIGHER LATITUDES. CORONAL HOLES ARE MOVING INTO A GEOEFFECTIVE
LOCATIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. AS REGION 8307 (N32E72)
ROTATES TO THE CENTER OF THE DISK, ERUPTIONS OF CMES ARE GOING TO BE
MORE GEOEFFECTIVE AS WELL. TYPE II (IMPORTANCE 3) AND IV
(IMPORTANCE 2) BURSTS WERE ASSOCIATED WITH THE X4.9 AND M3.0 X-RAY
FLARES. ESTIMATED SHOCK SPEED FROM X4.9 EVENT IS 1900 KM/S, AND
1000 KM/S +/- 200 KM/S FOR THE M3.0 FLARE.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 20 AUG till 22 AUG
| M-klass | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| X-klass | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Proton | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observerad 19 AUG 135 Prognoserat 20 AUG-22 AUG 138/140/144 90 Day Mean 19 AUG 114
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
OBSERVED AFR/AP 18 AUG 003/006 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 19 AUG 010/010 PREDICTED AFR/AP 20 AUG-22 AUG 015/015-025/020-015/010
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 20 AUG till 22 AUG
| A. Medelhöga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 10% | 20% | 20% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Höga breddgrader | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktivt | 15% | 25% | 25% |
| Små stormförhållanden | 05% | 10% | 15% |
| Svåra stormförhållanden | 01% | 05% | 05% |
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Rymdvädersfakta
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