Viewing archive of tisdag, 14 juli 1998

Solaktivitetsrapport

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 1998 Jul 14 2200 UTC
Skapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com

USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet

SDF Nummer 195 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 14 JUL 1998

IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 13-2100Z till 14-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY BECAME MODERATE. REGION 8270 (S17E15) PRODUCED AN M4/1B FLARE AT 14/1259Z. A 250 F.U. BURST AT 2695 MHZ AND STRONG TYPE IV ACCOMPANIED THIS IMPULSIVE EVENT. A TYPE II BURST MAY WELL HAVE OCCURRED WITH THIS EVENT BUT WAS PREDOMINANTLY OBSCURED BY THE TYPE IV. OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED C2 FLARES OCCURRED AT 14/0225Z AND 14/1903Z. AT 14/1100Z REGION 8269 (N18E17) PRODUCED A C1/SF FLARE. REGION 8270 IS SMALL AND RELATIVELY STABLE IN AREA BUT POSSESSES TIGHT MAGNETIC GRADIENTS AND HIGH RESOLUTION MAGNETOGRAPHS INDICATE A DELTA CONFIGURATION IN THE CENTER OF THE REGION.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINANTLY LOW FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENTS FROM REGION 8270 ARE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, ONLY SLIGHT MAGNETIC SIMPLIFICATION IN THIS DIMINUTIVE REGION WOULD RESULT IN A LARGE DECREASE OF THAT POSSIBILITY.
IIA. Sammanfattning av geofysisk aktivitet 13-2100Z till 14-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET AT ALL LATITUDES.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD REMAIN QUIET FOR 15 JUL. PREDOMINANTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON 15-16 JUL WITH PERIODS OF ACTIVE LEVELS POSSIBLE DURING THAT PERIOD DUE TO THE M4/1B FLARE MENTIONED ABOVE. THE LACK OF MASS EJECTION INFORMATION FROM THE NOW CRIPPLED SOHO SATELLITE LIMITS CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 15 JUL till 17 JUL
M-klass30%30%30%
X-klass05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observerad       14 JUL 103
  Prognoserat   15 JUL-17 JUL  103/103/104
  90 Day Mean        14 JUL 107
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
OBSERVED AFR/AP 13 JUL  004/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 14 JUL  003/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 15 JUL-17 JUL  005/008-010/015-012/010
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 15 JUL till 17 JUL
A. Medelhöga breddgrader
Aktivt10%25%30%
Små stormförhållanden05%10%15%
Svåra stormförhållanden01%05%05%
B. Höga breddgrader
Aktivt10%30%30%
Små stormförhållanden05%15%15%
Svåra stormförhållanden01%05%05%
NOTICE: GOES-9 CONTINUES TO OPERATE. HOWEVER, ONE REACTION WHEEL IS ABOVE TEMPERATURE AND CURRENT DRAW LIMITS. FAILURE COULD OCCUR AT ANY TIME WITH LOSS OF XRS DATA. GOES-10 IS NEARING OPERATIONAL STATUS.

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