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Solaktivitetsrapport

Rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet 1998 Apr 20 2200 UTC
Skapad av NOAA © SWPC och bearbetad av SpaceWeatherLive.com

USAF/NOAA rapport för sol- och geofysisk aktivitet

SDF Nummer 110 publicerat klockan 2200Z på 20 APR 1998

IA. Analys av solfläcksgrupper och solaktivitet från 19-2100Z till 20-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY BECAME MODERATE. A LONG DURATION M1 X-RAY EVENT AND TYPE II SWEEP OCCURRED AT 20/1021UT. THE LIKELY SOURCE FOR THE FLARE WAS BEHIND THE SW LIMB. SPACE-BASED SENSORS INDICATE STRONG EMISSIONS ON THE LIMB ALONG S25. A LARGE CME WAS ALSO OBSERVED OFF THE W-SW LIMB. FAINT POST FLARE LOOPS WERE ALSO EVIDENT. REGION 8205 (N21W40) CHANGED VERY LITTLE IN THE PAST 24 HOURS, AND MAINTAINS IT'S DSO BETA CONFIGURATION. THE REMAINING REGIONS HAVE BEEN QUIET.
IB. Prognos för solaktivitet
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LOW TO LOW. REGION 8205 HAS SMALL POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A C-CLASS FLARE. FURTHER ACTIVITY ALONG THE SW LIMB IS POSSIBLE BUT UNLIKELY AS POSSIBLE SOURCE REGION ROTATES FURTHER BEHIND THE LIMB. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 19/2100Z TO 20/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE. A GREATER THAN 10 MEV PROTON EVENT BEGAN AT 20/1130Z, PASSED THE 10 PFU THRESHOLD AT 20/1400Z, AND IS CURRENTLY STEADY AT A MAXIMUM OF 330 PFU. THE GREATER THAN 100 MEV PROTON FLUX IS AT 2.3 PFU AND STILL RISING SLOWLY. POLAR CAP ABSORPTION IS CURRENTLY AT A MAXIMUM OF 6.4 DB.
IIB. Prognos för geofysisk aktivitet
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS. MOST OF THE MATERIAL FROM THIS MORNING'S ACTIVITY APPEARS WESTWARD BOUND, THUS, NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD. THE 10 AND 100 MEV PROTON EVENTS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW.
III. Chans för solutbrott från 21 APR till 23 APR
M-klass10%05%05%
X-klass01%01%01%
Proton10%05%01%
PCAFIN PROGRESS
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observerad       20 APR 098
  Prognoserat   21 APR-23 APR  096/094/092
  90 Day Mean        20 APR 104
V. Geomagnetiskt A-index
OBSERVED AFR/AP 19 APR  002/004
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 20 APR  010/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 21 APR-23 APR  010/010-012/012-010/012
VI. Chanser för geomagnetisk aktivitet från 21 APR till 23 APR
A. Medelhöga breddgrader
Aktivt15%25%25%
Små stormförhållanden05%10%10%
Svåra stormförhållanden01%05%05%
B. Höga breddgrader
Aktivt20%30%30%
Små stormförhållanden05%15%10%
Svåra stormförhållanden05%11%11%

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