Просмотр архива за вторник, 9 ноября 2004
Отчет о солнечной активности
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Отчет о солнечно-геофизической активности 2004 Nov 09 2200 UTCПодготовлено NOAA © SWPC и представлено SpaceWeatherLive.com
Совместный отчет USAF/NOAA о солнечной и геофизической активности
Количество SD 314 на уровне 2200Z 09 Nov 2004IA. Анализ активных солнечных регионов и активности от 08 - 2100Z до 09 - 2100Z Solar activity was high. Region 696 (N08W50) produced
several C-class flares and at 09/1719 UTC the region produced an
M8.9/2n Tenflare (1000 sfu), accompanied by Type II (1866 km/s) and
Type IV radio sweeps. A 23-degree fragmented filament erupted south
of the active region at the same time as the flare. The M8 flare
was also accompanied by a very fast asymmetric full halo CME on
LASCO imagery with a plane-of-sky speed of near 1800 km/s. Region
696 maintained a beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration. Region
698 (S09W84) produced several C-class flares during the period.
Region 699 (S16E66) was numbered today. The 10 cm flux value
observed today was flare enhanced.
IB. Прогноз солнечной активности
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high. Region 696 is expected to produce M-class flares,
and X-class flares are possible.
IIA. Обзор геофизической активности от 08 - 2100Z до 09 - 2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to severe storm
conditions. The period began with active to major storm levels with
solar wind speed elevated to 600 km/s. A 34 nT sudden impulse was
observed at 09/0931 UTC, which was followed by major to severe
storming and an increase of solar wind speed from 600 to 800 km/s.
Another sudden impulse (46 nT) was observed at 1852 UTC and was
followed by severe storm conditions to the end of the period. The
GOES 10 and 12 spacecraft observed magnetopause crossings following
the second sudden impulse. Solar wind speed increased from 650 to
800 km/s and Bz turned southward to 30 nT for over an hour. The
greater than 10 MeV proton event that began on 07/1910 UTC continued
into the period, and the proton flux ended the period at 55 pfu.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at GOES was at high levels
today.
IIB. Прогноз геофизической активности
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to major storm conditions on 10-11
November. A CME shock associated with the M8 flare observed today
should arrive on 11 November. Activity should subside to quiet to
active levels on 12 November.
III. Вероятность события от 10 - Nov до 12 - Nov
| M-класс | 75% | 70% | 65% |
| X-класс | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Протон | 99% | 25% | 15% |
| PCAF | in progress | ||
IV. Радиоизлучение λ = 10,7см
Наблюдаемый 09 Nov 141 Прогнозируемый 10 Nov-12 Nov 120/115/110 среднее значение за последние 3 месяца 09 Nov 110
V. Геомагнитные индексы
Наблюдаемый Afr/Ap 08 Nov 116/189 По оценкам Afr/Ap 09 Nov 085/100 Прогнозируемый Afr/Ap 10 Nov-12 Nov 030/040-045/050-015/015
VI. Вероятность геомагнитной активности с 10 - Nov до 12 - Nov
| A. Средние широты | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Активно | 35% | 40% | 30% |
| Слабый шторм | 25% | 35% | 20% |
| Большой шторм | 20% | 25% | 10% |
| B. Высокие широты | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Активно | 45% | 30% | 45% |
| Слабый шторм | 30% | 40% | 25% |
| Большой шторм | 20% | 30% | 10% |
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