Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 114 (S12W28) produced an M1/Sn flare at 16/0310 UTC with an associated Type II radio sweep that had an estimated shock velocity of 750 km/s. This region was also the source for several lesser C-class flares during the period. Spot group continues to show decay although beta-gamma magnetic structure remains intact. Region 105 (S07W44) was limited to minor C-class flare production today and underwent little change during the period. Newly numbered Region 119 (S14E32) became active during the day, producing minor C-class flare activity. A 34 degree solar filament erupted in the northeast quadrant late in the period yesterday seen on SOHO/EIT imagery. New Regions 118 (N14E14), 120 (S19E57), 121 (S14E69), and 122 (S19E74) were assigned today.

Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate.

The geomagnetic field was at predominantly quiet levels. Isolated unsettled conditions were observed at high latitudes. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux has been high today.

The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. There is a chance for isolated active conditions on day three of the forecast period due to a possible weak shock passage from the M1/Sn flare mentioned in IA. Greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain moderate to high for days one and two of the forecast period.

  Наблюдаемый       16 Sep 183
  Прогнозируемый   17 Sep-19 Sep  180/180/175
  среднее значение за последние 3 месяца        16 Sep 177

  Наблюдаемый Afr/Ap 15 Sep  005/008
  По оценкам     Afr/Ap 16 Sep  006/008
  Прогнозируемый    Afr/Ap 17 Sep-19 Sep  006/008-006/008-006/008