Просмотр архива за среда, 11 апреля 2001
Отчет о солнечной активности
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Отчет о солнечно-геофизической активности 2001 Apr 11 2200 UTCПодготовлено NOAA © SWPC и представлено SpaceWeatherLive.com
Совместный отчет USAF/NOAA о солнечной и геофизической активности
Количество SD 101 на уровне 2200Z 11 Apr 2001IA. Анализ активных солнечных регионов и активности от 10 - 2100Z до 11 - 2100Z Solar activity was moderate. A single M-class event
occurred during the period. Region 9415 (S22W27) produced an M2/1f
parallel ribbon flare at 11/1326 UTC. This event was accompanied by
Type II and IV radio sweeps, a 540 sfu 10 cm radio burst, and a
full-halo coronal mass ejection (CME). Two new regions were
numbered: 9426 (S09E40) and 9427 (S07W12).
IB. Прогноз солнечной активности
Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate to high levels. Region 9415 can be expected to produce
another major flare during the period.
IIA. Обзор геофизической активности от 10 - 2100Z до 11 - 2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to severe storm levels. Two
discernable shocks were detected by the ACE spacecraft at
approximately 11/1300 and 11/1520 UTC. These effects were most
likely the precursors for the two earth-directed CME's produced on
9-10 April. The resulting CME's arrival at earth produced severe
geomagnetic storming during the period of 11/1500-1800 UTC. The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at high levels all period long,
reaching a maximum of 322 PFU near the end of the period. A polar
cap absorption (PCA) event remained in effect during the period. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux has at high levels for the first
part of the period and then decreased to moderate levels for the
remainder of the period.
IIB. Прогноз геофизической активности
The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at active to major storm levels during the
first day of the period. A second geomagnetic storm is expected to
arrive late on 12 April or early on 13 April UTC. This disturbance
will be the result of the full-halo CME described in Section 1A.
Brief severe storm levels at high latitudes can be expected.
Unsettled to minor storm levels are expected on 14 April as the
storm subsides. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to
continue through most of the period. The PCA event is expected to
end during the latter half of the period. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux is expected to be at mostly moderate levels during the
period.
III. Вероятность события от 12 - Apr до 14 - Apr
| M-класс | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| X-класс | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Протон | 80% | 25% | 25% |
| PCAF | in progress | ||
IV. Радиоизлучение λ = 10,7см
Наблюдаемый 11 Apr 160 Прогнозируемый 12 Apr-14 Apr 160/160/155 среднее значение за последние 3 месяца 11 Apr 167
V. Геомагнитные индексы
Наблюдаемый Afr/Ap 10 Apr 007/009 По оценкам Afr/Ap 11 Apr 050/060 Прогнозируемый Afr/Ap 12 Apr-14 Apr 060/090-050/050-020/025
VI. Вероятность геомагнитной активности с 12 - Apr до 14 - Apr
| A. Средние широты | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Активно | 15% | 15% | 35% |
| Слабый шторм | 25% | 25% | 15% |
| Большой шторм | 45% | 45% | 10% |
| B. Высокие широты | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Активно | 15% | 25% | 35% |
| Слабый шторм | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Большой шторм | 50% | 35% | 15% |
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