Просмотр архива за пятница, 10 ноября 2000

Отчет о солнечной активности

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Отчет о солнечно-геофизической активности 2000 Nov 10 2200 UTC
Подготовлено NOAA © SWPC и представлено SpaceWeatherLive.com

Совместный отчет USAF/NOAA о солнечной и геофизической активности

Количество SD 315 на уровне 2200Z 10 Nov 2000

IA. Анализ активных солнечных регионов и активности от 09 - 2100Z до 10 - 2100Z

Solar activity was low. Today's largest event was a C6/1f from Region 9225 (S20W48) at 09/2122Z. There appears to be some gradual flux emergence in this region. The rest of today's activity consisted of a few low-level C-class events. Two new regions were assigned today, Region 9229 (N04E70) and Region 9230 (N05W39). Both are simple and stable. There has been a noticeable decline in activity and in background levels as regions 9218, 9212, and 9213 rotate around the west limb.
IB. Прогноз солнечной активности
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Regions 9218 (N21W83) and 9227 (S13E24) appear to be the most likely sources for activity at this time.
IIA. Обзор геофизической активности от 09 - 2100Z до 10 - 2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to major storm levels. The field was initially running at unsettled to active levels, but a strong interplanetary shock passed the ACE spacecraft at 0604Z and was followed promptly by a sudden impulse at 0629Z (measuring 67 nT in Boulder), and a period of minor to major storm level activity (i.e. K-indices of 5 and 6). The solar wind following the shock did not exhibit strongly southward fields, and the result was a weaker disturbance than had been expected, with a decline to active to unsettled during the last nine hours of the period. This shock most likely is the result of the CME associated with the M7 flare of 8 November, and the solar wind signatures are consistent with an interpretation that the Earth received a glancing, rather than a direct blow from the interplanetary disturbance. Event level proton fluxes continued today at the greater than 10 MeV and 100 MeV levels. Flux levels declined throughout the period, with current levels (as of 10/2100Z) of 192 pfu and 1.3 pfu at 10 MeV and 100 MeV respectively.
IIB. Прогноз геофизической активности
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly active during the next 24 hours, but there may be with periods of minor to major storm levels, particularly during local nighttime hours. Active levels are expected to continue through the second day and partway through the third day, as effects are expected from a favorably positioned coronal hole. The greater than 100 MeV proton event should end within a few hours, but the greater than 10 MeV event is likely to continue into the third day.
III. Вероятность события от 11 - Nov до 13 - Nov
M-класс35%35%35%
X-класс05%05%05%
Протон99%99%70%
PCAFin progress
IV. Радиоизлучение λ = 10,7см
  Наблюдаемый       10 Nov 153
  Прогнозируемый   11 Nov-13 Nov  150/150/150
  среднее значение за последние 3 месяца        10 Nov 173
V. Геомагнитные индексы
  Наблюдаемый Afr/Ap 09 Nov  010/011
  По оценкам     Afr/Ap 10 Nov  030/040
  Прогнозируемый    Afr/Ap 11 Nov-13 Nov  025/035-020/020-015/020
VI. Вероятность геомагнитной активности с 11 - Nov до 13 - Nov
A. Средние широты
Активно40%40%30%
Слабый шторм30%30%20%
Большой шторм10%10%10%
B. Высокие широты
Активно15%15%25%
Слабый шторм50%50%40%
Большой шторм20%20%15%

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