Просмотр архива за пятница, 31 марта 2000
Отчет о солнечной активности
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Отчет о солнечно-геофизической активности 2000 Mar 31 2200 UTCПодготовлено NOAA © SWPC и представлено SpaceWeatherLive.com
Совместный отчет USAF/NOAA о солнечной и геофизической активности
Количество SD 091 на уровне 2200Z 31 MAR 2000IA. Анализ активных солнечных регионов и активности от 30 - 2100Z до 31 - 2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY BECAME HIGH DUE TO THE LARGE NUMBER OF
M-CLASS EVENTS THAT OCCURRED. MULTIPLE REGIONS WERE RESPONSIBLE FOR
THIS INCREASE IN ACTIVITY. REGION 8939 (N22E56) PRODUCED THE
LARGEST EVENT - AN M4/SF AT 31/1019Z. THIS FLARE ALSO PRODUCED A
WEAK TYPE IV AND MINOR CENTIMETER BURSTS. REGION 8939 ALSO PRODUCED
M1/SF FLARES AT 31/0755Z, 31/1318Z, AND 31/1655Z. THIS REGION'S
SMALL SIZE BELIES ITS M-CLASS FLARE PRODUCTION. REGION 8936
(S14E56) GREW AT A MODERATE PACE DURING THE PERIOD AND EXHIBITED
INCREASING MAGNETIC GRADIENTS AND A POSSIBLE DELTA CONFIGURATION.
THIS REGION PRODUCED AN M2/2B AT 30/2324Z AND AN M1/SN AT 31/0652Z
(WITH A LARGE CORONAL MASS EJECTION). REGION 8925 (S18W32) PRODUCED
AN M2/1N AT 31/1901Z. THIS REGION WAS PREDOMINANTLY STABLE AND
EXHIBITED SOME MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY. SEVERAL FILAMENTS IN THE NORTH
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE SUN FADED DURING THE PERIOD.
IB. Прогноз солнечной активности
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN AT A
MODERATE LEVEL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. CONTINUED GROWTH IN REGION
8936 WOULD INCREASE THE FREQUENCY OF M-CLASS EVENTS FROM THAT
REGION. REGION 8939 COULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE M-CLASS EVENTS BUT DUE
TO ITS SMALL AREA IN WHITE LIGHT, IT IS LIKELY THIS REGION WILL
QUIET DURING THE PERIOD. THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF A MAJOR
FLARE DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
IIA. Обзор геофизической активности от 30 - 2100Z до 31 - 2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS PREDOMINANTLY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE. ISOLATED
MINOR STORMING WAS ALSO OBSERVED. THE SOURCE OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS
UNKNOWN. SOLAR WIND PARAMETERS WERE REASONABLY BENIGN EXCEPT FOR
SOME PERIODS OF NEGATIVE BZ AND THE PASSAGE OF A SECTOR BOUNDARY
DURING THE PERIOD.
IIB. Прогноз геофизической активности
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD
BECOME QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. ISOLATED ACTIVE
CONDITIONS COULD BE EXPERIENCED EARLY ON 01 APR AND AGAIN ON 03 APR.
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A SOLAR PROTON EVENT DURING THE NEXT THREE
DAYS.
III. Вероятность события от 01 - APR до 03 - APR
| M-класс | 85% | 85% | 85% |
| X-класс | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Протон | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Радиоизлучение λ = 10,7см
Наблюдаемый 31 MAR 225 Прогнозируемый 01 APR-03 APR 225/225/223 среднее значение за последние 3 месяца 31 MAR 181
V. Геомагнитные индексы
OBSERVED AFR/AP 30 MAR 008/010 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 31 MAR 015/020 PREDICTED AFR/AP 01 APR-03 APR 010/012-008/010-010/015
VI. Вероятность геомагнитной активности с 01 - APR до 03 - APR
| A. Средние широты | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Активно | 25% | 15% | 25% |
| Слабый шторм | 15% | 05% | 15% |
| Большой шторм | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Высокие широты | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Активно | 30% | 15% | 30% |
| Слабый шторм | 15% | 05% | 15% |
| Большой шторм | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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