Просмотр архива за понедельник, 30 августа 1999
Отчет о солнечной активности
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Отчет о солнечно-геофизической активности 1999 Aug 30 2200 UTCПодготовлено NOAA © SWPC и представлено SpaceWeatherLive.com
Совместный отчет USAF/NOAA о солнечной и геофизической активности
Количество SD 242 на уровне 2200Z 30 AUG 1999IA. Анализ активных солнечных регионов и активности от 29 - 2100Z до 30 - 2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY BECAME MODERATE. REGION 8681 (N21W16)
PRODUCED AN M3/2B AT 30/1805Z. THIS EVENT WAS ACCOMPANIED BY A
MODERATE INTENSITY TYPE II. THE GROWTH RATE SLOWED IN THIS REGION
BUT IT MAINTAINED ITS ANOMALOUS MAGNETIC CONFIGURATION. REGION 8674
(S24W50) PRODUCED A C9/1N AT 30/1448Z. THIS REGION EXHIBITED
MODERATE DECAY IN SUNSPOT NUMBER AND AREAL COVERAGE. NOTIFICATION
WAS RECEIVED OF A PARTIAL HALO CME EVENT WITH THE X1 FLARE AT
28/1805Z FROM REGION 8674. HOWEVER, THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE
MATERIAL WAS SEEN TO MOVE OUT OF THE ECLIPTIC AND THE EVENT IS
DIFFICULT TO INTERPRET. IT IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME IF THERE WAS A
HALO CME WITH THE M3 FLARE ABOVE FROM REGION 8681.
IB. Прогноз солнечной активности
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
PREDOMINANTLY MODERATE WITH M-CLASS EVENTS POSSIBLE FROM REGIONS
8674 AND 8681. X-CLASS EVENTS REMAIN POSSIBLE FROM REGION 8674 BUT
THAT POSSIBILITY DECREASES AS THE REGION DECAYS.
IIA. Обзор геофизической активности от 29 - 2100Z до 30 - 2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE 30/0800-1200Z INTERVAL. DURING THAT TIME ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM
CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED. THIS DISTURBANCE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
RELATED TO THE IMPACT OF A CORONAL MASS EJECTION. RATHER, BZ TURNED
SOUTHWARD PRIOR TO THAT TIME WHILE OTHER SOLAR WIND PARAMETERS
REMAINED UNREMARKABLE. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS
ORBIT REMAINED AT HIGH LEVELS.
IIB. Прогноз геофизической активности
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD
RANGE FROM UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE LEVELS ON 31 AUG. ISOLATED MINOR
STORMING IS POSSIBLE. THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED IN RESPONSE TO
THE PARTIAL HALO CME/X1 FLARE MENTIONED ABOVE. HAD THE CME BEEN
AIMED DIRECTLY AT THE EARTH, A MUCH LARGER STORM WOULD BE EXPECTED.
UNSETTLED TO SLIGHTLY ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR 01-02 SEP.
THE FORECAST FOR 02 SEP WILL BECOME ELEVATED IF NOTIFICATION IS
RECEIVED THAT THE M3/2B EVENT TODAY PRODUCED A HALO OR PARTIAL HALO
CME. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF AN ENERGETIC SOLAR PROTON EVENT
DURING THE PERIOD.
III. Вероятность события от 31 - AUG до 02 - SEP
| M-класс | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| X-класс | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Протон | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Радиоизлучение λ = 10,7см
Наблюдаемый 30 AUG 198 Прогнозируемый 31 AUG-02 SEP 194/185/165 среднее значение за последние 3 месяца 30 AUG 169
V. Геомагнитные индексы
OBSERVED AFR/AP 29 AUG 006/010 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 30 AUG 013/015 PREDICTED AFR/AP 31 AUG-02 SEP 015/015-012/012-010/010
VI. Вероятность геомагнитной активности с 31 - AUG до 02 - SEP
| A. Средние широты | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Активно | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Слабый шторм | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Большой шторм | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Высокие широты | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Активно | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Слабый шторм | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Большой шторм | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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