Prognoza meteo spațială - Discuție

Emis: 2024 Feb 26 0030 UTC
Pregătit de Departamentul de Comerț al SUA, NOAA, Centrul de predicție a vremii spațiale și procesat de SpaceWeatherLive.com

Activitatea solară

Rezumat 24 ore
Solar activity increased to moderate levels this period. Region 3590 (N18W13, Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) produced numerous C-class events and an M2.0/1n flare at 27/1722 UTC. The region persisted as the largest and most active region on the disk with penumbral growth evident in the leader spot group. New Region 3595 (N20E46, Cai/beta) was numbered. Little change was observed across the remaining four spotted regions. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected.
Prognoză
Moderate levels of solar activity and M-class flares are likely, with a chance for X-class flare activity, over 26-28 Feb.

Particule energetice

Rezumat 24 ore
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.
Prognoză
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels over 26-28 Feb. There is a slight chance for S1 (Minor) conditions over 26-28 Feb.

Vântul Solar

Rezumat 24 ore
Solar wind conditions reflected weak to moderate enhanced conditions, likely due to weak CME effects. Total field field generally varied from 5 to 12 nT and Bz reached southward to -8/-10 nT. Wind speed increased from about 350 km/s to a peak of around 460 km/s. Total phi remained in a mostly negative orientation.
Prognoză
Continued enhanced conditions are expected over 26 Feb due to a combination of CME effects (25 Feb) and negative polarity CH HSS influences (26-28 Feb).

Geospațial

Rezumat 24 ore
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
Prognoză
Active conditions are expected, with periods of G1 (Minor) storms likely, on 26 Feb due to the glancing-blow arrival of a CME from 21 Feb and the onset of negative polarity CH HSS influences. Negative polarity CH HSS influences are expected to continue into 27-28 Feb with quiet and unsettled conditions likely.

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Date despre vremea spațială

Ultima erupție clasa X22.02.2024X6.3
Ultima erupție clasa M25.02.2024M2.0
Ultima furtună geomagnetică18.12.2023Kp6 (G2)
Zile fără pată
Ultima zi fără pată solară08.06.2022
Numărul mediu lunar al petelor solare
ianuarie 2024123 +8.8

Această zi din istorie*

Erupții solare
12004X1.64
22004M8.24
32014M1.59
42000M1.54
52002M1.37
ApG
1202324G2
2200315
3200016
4199616
5199715
*din 1994

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