Vizualizarea arhivei de luni, 17 ianuarie 2005

Raport de activitate solară

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Raport de activitate solar-geofizică 2005 Jan 17 2200 UTC
Pregătit de NOAA © SWPC și procesat de SpaceWeatherLive.com

Raport comun USAF/NOAA privind activitatea solară și geofizică

Numărul SDF 017 Emis la 2200Z la 17 Jan 2005

IA. Analiza regiunilor active solare și a activității de la 16-2100Z la 17-2100Z

Solar activity was high. Region 720 (N13W30) continued to produce flare activity with the largest being an X3/2f at 17/0952 UTC. This flare was associated with a complex full-halo CME directed mostly towards the northwest. Although this region remains large and magnetically complex some restructuring of the sunspots was apparent following this flare. New Region 723 (N06E77) is rotating around the east limb.
IB. Prognoza activității solare
Solar activity is expected to remain at high to very high levels. Region 720 could produce yet another major solar event.
IIA. Rezumatul activității geofizice 16-2100Z la 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to severe storm levels. Solar wind conditions observed by the NASA ACE spacecraft show a fairly complex onset of activity which may suggest the arrival of a solar wind structure from combined CMEs expected from previous major flares on 15 January. The proton event at greater than 10 MeV that began on 16/0210 UTC remains in progress. The latest X3 flare discussed in Part IA has increased the current peak flux to 5040 pfu observed at 17/1750 UTC. A proton event at greater than 100 MeV also resulted from the X3 flare, beginning at 17/1215 UTC and with a current peak flux of 28 pfu observed at 17/1700 UTC. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux observed by the GOES spacecraft, as well as the solar wind parameters observed by the ACE SWEPAM instruments, have been rendered temporarily unusable due to the energetic proton event.
IIB. Prognoza activității geofizice
The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at major to severe storm levels. Another CME arrival is expected late on 18 January, or possibly early on 19 January, due to today's X3 flare, which should keep geomagnetic activity levels elevated. The current proton events are expected to remain in progress.
III. Probabilități de eveniment 18 Jan până la 20 Jan
Clasa M90%90%90%
Clasa X30%30%30%
Proton99%99%99%
PCAFin progress
IV. Flux de Penticton 10,7 cm
  Observat       17 Jan 138
  Prevăzut   18 Jan-20 Jan  135/130/120
  Media 90 de zile        17 Jan 107
V. Indici geomagnetici A
  Observat Afr/Ap 16 Jan  010/012
  Estimat(ă)     Afr/Ap 17 Jan  060/080
  Prevăzut    Afr/Ap 18 Jan-20 Jan  060/080-050/050-030/030
VI. Probabilități de activitate geomagnetică 18.Jan până la 20.Jan
A. Latitudinile mijlocii
Activ15%20%50%
Furtună minoră50%50%30%
Furtună major-severă35%30%10%
B. Latitudini înalte
Activ10%10%50%
Furtună minoră50%50%30%
Furtună major-severă40%40%20%

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