Vizualizarea arhivei de vineri, 16 iulie 2004

Raport de activitate solară

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Raport de activitate solar-geofizică 2004 Jul 16 2200 UTC
Pregătit de NOAA © SWPC și procesat de SpaceWeatherLive.com

Raport comun USAF/NOAA privind activitatea solară și geofizică

Numărul SDF 198 Emis la 2200Z la 16 Jul 2004

IA. Analiza regiunilor active solare și a activității de la 15-2100Z la 16-2100Z

Solar activity was high. Region 649 (S10E26) produced three X-class flares: an X1 at 0206 UTC, an X1/1f at 1041 UTC, and an X3/3b at 1355 UTC. All of these events were impulsive and none were associated with an obvious CME in the LASCO data. However, a weak type II radio sweep was observed in association with the X3 event. Region 649 has shown some consolidation of spots in the leader and in the trailer areas and the region is maintaining complexity - the delta configuration in the dominant trailer penumbra continues to be the primary location for the flare activity. Two new regions are just visible on the east limb in GOES-12 SXI images at S11 and N05. The region to the north rotated into view at (N05E88) and was assigned SWO region number 652.
IB. Prognoza activității solare
Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high. Region 649 is expected to continue to produce M-class flares and has a fair chance for producing more major flare activity during the next three days (17-19 July). These events could become geoeffective (i.e. earthward directed CMEs or proton events) as the region evolves and as it moves near central meridian and into the western hemisphere.
IIA. Rezumatul activității geofizice 15-2100Z la 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled, although there was one active period from 2100-2359 on 15 July.
IIB. Prognoza activității geofizice
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly unsettled for the next three days (17-19 July). As noted previously, however, there is a possibility that Region 649 could produce some events that could increase geomagnetic activity during the forecast interval.
III. Probabilități de eveniment 17 Jul până la 19 Jul
Clasa M75%75%75%
Clasa X35%35%35%
Proton15%20%25%
PCAFGreen
IV. Flux de Penticton 10,7 cm
  Observat       16 Jul 147
  Prevăzut   17 Jul-19 Jul  150/150/150
  Media 90 de zile        16 Jul 098
V. Indici geomagnetici A
  Observat Afr/Ap 15 Jul  007/009
  Estimat(ă)     Afr/Ap 16 Jul  010/010
  Prevăzut    Afr/Ap 17 Jul-19 Jul  010/012-008/012-008/012
VI. Probabilități de activitate geomagnetică 17.Jul până la 19.Jul
A. Latitudinile mijlocii
Activ30%25%25%
Furtună minoră15%15%15%
Furtună major-severă05%05%05%
B. Latitudini înalte
Activ30%30%30%
Furtună minoră15%15%15%
Furtună major-severă05%05%05%

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