Vizualizarea arhivei de marți, 18 noiembrie 2003

Raport de activitate solară

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Raport de activitate solar-geofizică 2003 Nov 18 2200 UTC
Pregătit de NOAA © SWPC și procesat de SpaceWeatherLive.com

Raport comun USAF/NOAA privind activitatea solară și geofizică

Numărul SDF 322 Emis la 2200Z la 18 Nov 2003

IA. Analiza regiunilor active solare și a activității de la 17-2100Z la 18-2100Z

Solar activity was at moderate levels again today. Region 501 (N03E09) produced several M-class flares today. A pair of M3/2n flares were the most notable, peak fluxes were at 18/0752Z and 18/0831Z. A filament channel to the south and west of this region erupted following the first flare. Strong radio bursts, a Tenflare, a Type IV, and two separate occurrences of Type II radio sweeps were also associated with this period of activity. LASCO imagery depicted a full halo CME as a result of the complex series of events that appears to have a fairly well connected Earth bound component to the plasma cloud. This region has shown some growth over the past 24 hours and has emerged into a beta-gamma-delta magnetic complex. The largest flare of the period was an M4 that occurred beyond the east limb at 18/1011Z and is thought to be from old Region 486 which should start to become visible on day one of the period. Region 507 (N10E78) was newly numbered today and is believed to be old Region 488. Region 506 (S23E72) was also numbered today.
IB. Prognoza activității solare
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels. Regions 501 and 507 are both capable of producing major flare activity.
IIA. Rezumatul activității geofizice 17-2100Z la 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm levels. The elevated conditions are due to a favorably positioned recurrent high speed coronal hole stream. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes reached high levels today.
IIB. Prognoza activității geofizice
The geomagnetic field is expected to range between predominantly active to minor storm levels through much of the period. Minor storm conditions are expected around the middle of day one due to a glancing blow, from the partial halo CME that occurred as a result of the M4 flare that was recorded at 0905Z on the 17 of Nov. Isolated major to severe storm conditions are expected beginning around the middle of day two due to a second transient that is expected as the result of the complex M-class activity emanating a full halo CME today. Day three should see a return to predominantly active conditions with isolated minor storm possible at this time.
III. Probabilități de eveniment 19 Nov până la 21 Nov
Clasa M70%80%80%
Clasa X15%30%30%
Proton10%15%20%
PCAFyellow
IV. Flux de Penticton 10,7 cm
  Observat       18 Nov 144
  Prevăzut   19 Nov-21 Nov  160/190/220
  Media 90 de zile        18 Nov 129
V. Indici geomagnetici A
  Observat Afr/Ap 17 Nov  021/034
  Estimat(ă)     Afr/Ap 18 Nov  018/021
  Prevăzut    Afr/Ap 19 Nov-21 Nov  025/040-040/050-030/030
VI. Probabilități de activitate geomagnetică 19.Nov până la 21.Nov
A. Latitudinile mijlocii
Activ40%40%55%
Furtună minoră20%35%25%
Furtună major-severă15%25%15%
B. Latitudini înalte
Activ30%20%40%
Furtună minoră40%50%35%
Furtună major-severă25%30%20%

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